The Nine Decision Desk has called it: the Coalition cannot form government and defeate. Labor will form government in NSW, either in majority or with support from the crossbench.
“The vote trends suggest Labor will be in a position to form a government. But it is still too early to tell whether it will be in minority or majority,” says the Herald’s Matt Wade on the Decision Desk. ABC election analyst Antony Green agrees, saying with 12.4 per cent of the vote counte, The swing to Labor is great enough to deliver them government in some form.
NSW election results 2023 LIVE updates
Those in the coastal seat of Kiama have been faced with a difficult choice between. A controversial incumbent, a fly-in Liberal, or moving for the first time since 2011 to Labor.
Kiama’s current member, Gareth Ward, is out on bail after being charge with sexual abuse crimes (an allegation he strenuously denies). As he runs as an independent after leaving the Liberal Party.
Voters’ other choices are Liberal fly-in Melanie Gibbons. Who was the previous member for Holsworthy but lost her seat in preselection; Labor’s Katelin McInerney. Support the Greens’ Tonia Gray or John Gill from the Sustainable Australia party.
NSW election results 2023 LIVE updates: Chris Minns set to defeat Dominic Perrottet to become next NSW premier
So far McInerney has the lead at over 52 per cent with a 14.3 per cent swing to Labor, followed by Ward at 47.6 per cent. Things aren’t looking good for Gibbons who sits just behind the Greens at just 11.1 per cent.
Ward faces an uphill battle if elected. He was suspended from parliament last year after the historical charges were brought against him as Premier Dominic Perrottet called for him to resign. Both Perrottet and NSW Labor Leader Chris Minns said they would support moves to suspend him again. The case is due before Sydney’s Downing Centre District Court on September 14.
It will be a disappointing loss for Gibbons, who was promised a cabinet position should she win the seat.
Labor has secured five out of the seven seats which were seen as key for the party to win majority government, including seats in the battleground of western Sydney which had been held by the Liberals for decades.
It’s been 10 years since former Liberal deputy leader Stuart Ayres took the seat of Penrith from Labor. But he has now lost to Labor’s candidate: former Penrith Council mayor Karen McKeown.
Another key seat, Parramatta, fell to Labor after the retirement of Liberal Geoff Lee who served as its member for more than a decade. Parramatta mayor Donna Davis, who was hand-selected by Chris Minns as the Labor candidate, came out on top.
The Liberals’ most marginal seat going into the election, East Hills, which was on a 0.1 per cent margin after redistribution, has also been taken by Labor.
Labor also retained Riverstone and the brand new seat of Leppington, which was notionally on a Labor margin of 1.5 per cent going into the election.