Strona główna Aktualności Overvalued, Undervalued Trade Targets: Week 11 (2024)

Overvalued, Undervalued Trade Targets: Week 11 (2024)

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I’m not sure how we are at this point in the season already, but the end of Week 11 marks the trade deadline in most fantasy football leagues. The past 10 weeks have flown by, despite the countless ups and downs that have brought us immeasurable joy and pain.

Fortunately, I avoided pain with my trade suggestions last week. I highlighted James Conner and George Pickens as players to buy ahead of Week 10, and both finished as top-5 options at their respective positions. Given their favorable schedules the rest of the way, I think you’ll be happy having them on your team for a playoff push. Tony Pollard and Cedric Tillman are the players I recommended trading away. Sure, I took the easy way out with Tillman being on a bye, but he has several tough matchups coming up that will render him difficult to trust when you need him most. Pollard was banged up in the Titans’ loss to the Chargers but didn’t provide much for fantasy purposes when he was on the field. He also ceded 10 opportunities to a returning Tyjae Spears, which doesn’t bode well for his value moving forward.

For many of you, this is the last week to negotiate and make something happen, so I’m hoping to come through with another batch of trade targets that can help you clinch a playoff spot and win a championship. Let’s get into it, starting with two players to pursue.

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Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers

This one feels a bit obvious, but it’s now or never, right? Christian McCaffrey finally made his long-awaited return in Week 10 and the results were solid, yet underwhelming. While he only managed to gain three yards per carry and did not find the end zone, McCaffrey garnered seven targets and picked up 68 yards on six receptions.

He finished the week as a low-end RB1, which is good, but not what fantasy managers hoped when they drafted CMC with the first overall pick and stashed him on IR for over half the campaign. Even in half-PPR scoring, McCaffrey is typically considered a lock for 20-plus fantasy points.

It wasn’t an efficient showing for McCaffrey on the ground, but it’s incredibly encouraging to see this utilization in his first game back from an Achilles injury.

We know McCaffrey is one of the best backs in the NFL, but that alone isn’t reason enough to spend up for him in a fantasy trade. The 49ers are in one of the most competitive divisions in the league, so there will be no weeks off for San Francisco over the final stretch of the regular season. And it just so happens that this final stretch is, on paper, extremely juicy for McCaffrey.

This week, he’ll take on the division-rival Seahawks, who give up the third-most yards per rushing attempt in the league. Back in Week 6, Jordan Mason racked up 73 yards on just nine carries against Seattle before getting injured. In his absence, rookie speedster Isaac Guerendo ripped off a 76-yarder and finished with 10 carries for 99 yards.

His Week 12 meeting with the Packers is a middling matchup, but his opponents from Weeks 13 through 16 are enticing. The Bills, Bears, Rams, and Dolphins have all struggled to stop fantasy running backs.

McCaffrey can be expected to improve on the ground over the next few weeks, and he has already shown he is still one of the league’s premier pass-catching weapons out of the backfield. Although he is not going to come cheap, you’re not going to have to pay what you would have to acquire him in seasons past.

I would add to D’Andre Swift, James Cook, or Kenneth Walker III to get McCaffrey, and for a spicier take, if you are fighting for a playoff spot with Derrick Henry on your squad, I’d strongly consider trading him straight up. I’m sure Henry will be fine, but his upcoming schedule is challenging and he won’t be able to help you in Week 14 when the Ravens have a bye.

Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans

I rarely advocate for acquiring a player at his peak. Calvin Ridley likely hit some waiver wires in Week 7, but three weeks later, he’s on a heater. Since Week 8, Ridley is the WR3 in fantasy, averaging nearly 17 points per game.

Still, fantasy managers aren’t going to be valuing Ridley as a top-12 wideout. He’s on a subpar offense and has shown that he can follow up a huge showing with a vanishing act as he did between Weeks 2 and 3. Just last week, I mentioned Tony Pollard as a player to trade away in part because he was on the Titans with Will Levis back at the helm.

The difference between Pollard and Ridley is that Tennessee’s schedule over the next two weeks is excruciating for the running game but delightful for the air attack. The Vikings and Texans give up the fourth- and fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, respectively, while surrendering the third- and seventh-most fantasy points to receivers, respectively.

The good times shouldn’t stop after Week 12 for Ridley, either. The 29-year-old doesn’t have any worrisome matchups the rest of the way.

Levis was surprisingly decent in Week 10 against a stout Chargers pass defense, throwing for 175 yards and two scores, both to Ridley. I’m not saying that Levis is going to consistently play turnover-free football over the last seven weeks, but he can surely support Ridley for fantasy purposes against those opponents.

Since the Titans traded DeAndre Hopkins ahead of Week 8, Ridley has played on more than 90% of offensive snaps twice and has amassed well over 10 targets per contest. Tennessee’s second-highest target-earner over the past three weeks is Nick Westbrook-Ikhine with 4.3 a game. Not only is Ridley the clear-cut priority in this passing game, but there is no reliable secondary option.

Ridley got his bye out of the way early on, so you can lock him in your lineup as a WR2 for the rest of the season. Some names I’d trade away for Ridley include Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Khalil Shakir, and another receiver we’ll be talking about shortly.

If you want to be more aggressive, I like the idea of tiering down from guys like Cooper Kupp, Tee Higgins, and even CeeDee Lamb to Ridley if another player of relevance is coming back in return.

 

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

Back in Week 4, I named Najee Harris as a trade target. He was the RB31 with zero touchdowns at the time. Since then, Harris has been the RB22 with a touchdown in three of his last four games.

The fourth-year pro has arguably looked better than ever as of late and is averaging the most yards per touch of his career. Although he was inefficient in Week 10, he salvaged his day with a one-yard score. When you add in the fact that the Steelers are 3-0 and humming offensively with Russell Wilson under center, you have a strong case to make when selling him.

Harris is currently dealing with an ankle injury but isn’t expected to miss any time. I don’t foresee him getting limited reps because of this, either, but there is another reason to be concerned about his role going forward.

Jaylen Warren and Harris operated as a one-two punch in 2023 with Harris getting the majority of ground work and Warren handling passing-down duties. Warren was still involved on the ground, though, with almost nine carries per game.

Warren entered this season with a hamstring injury and hurt his knee in Week 3. He has gradually seen an uptick in his opportunities recently and is finally looking explosive again.

It should be anticipated that Pittsburgh deploys close to a 50-50 split in backfield reps down the stretch. This doesn’t inherently mean Harris will be underwhelming for fantasy. However, the Steelers’ schedule will make things difficult.

This is essentially the inverse of the Titans’ situation I discussed earlier. I brought up George Pickens as a player to trade for last week because of Pittsburgh’s beautiful remaining schedule for wideouts. But for running backs? It is brutal.

Harris still has to face all of his divisional foes twice. The Ravens, Browns, and Bengals all rank top-10 against fantasy backs. In Week 15, the Steelers take on their intrastate rivals in Philadelphia, who give up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs.

If you make it to the fantasy championship in Week 17 with Harris on your roster, you’d be staring down a bout with the Kansas City Chiefs, the single-toughest matchup for the running back position.

It’s been a nice ride but now is the time to capitalize on Harris’ production. I would rather have Rhamondre Stevenson and Tyrone Tracy Jr., and I’d add to Harris to try and get Kenneth Walker III, David Montgomery, or Josh Jacobs.

Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

I wish there was a receiver to sell high on this week, but I don’t feel as strongly about trading away any wideouts as I do Brian Thomas Jr., who hasn’t done much of anything for fantasy over the past two weeks. There is no question he still has value, though, and should yield a decent return based on what he accomplished earlier this season.

If there is this kind of interest for Thomas in your league, go get a deal done. Thomas admittedly has an awesome matchup this week against the Lions, who allow offenses to throw all over them while stopping the run.

If the majority of trade deadlines weren’t this week, I would have considered waiting until next week to suggest trading Thomas, but perhaps having this matchup on tap will help in negotiations.

There is no official word on whether or not Trevor Lawrence will return in Week 11, but at the time of writing this, it seems highly unlikely. The former first overall pick is nursing a significant AC joint sprain in his non-throwing shoulder and is reportedly in danger of missing the rest of the campaign. Given the Jaguars’ record of 2-8, it might be wise for the team to put Lawrence on ice.

Lawrence wasn’t outstanding through the first nine weeks but he was worlds better than replacement Mac Jones this past Sunday. Granted, he faced a solid Vikings defense, but Minnesota has allowed plenty of teams to find success through the air. Jones threw two picks, lost a fumble, and only targeted Thomas three times.

Thomas himself is playing through a chest injury and could certainly get healthier over the next few weeks. His best-case scenario is probably to get Lawrence back after Jacksonville’s Week 12 bye and be fully healthy against the Texans. This is another good matchup, but it’s all downhill after that.

The Jags get the Titans, Jets, Raiders, and Titans again to close out the fantasy season. All three teams rank top six against fantasy receivers and top 12 against the pass in general. If Lawrence is back in Week 13, which is a big if, that will be the only week you can have any sort of confidence rolling out Thomas in your starting lineup.

I wouldn’t expect to hit a home run trading away Thomas right now, but if you need points immediately, he isn’t the player you want to depend on, especially with his bye coming next week. Some names to consider pivoting to are Calvin Ridley, Ladd McConkey, and Jayden Reed.

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