Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Houston Texans as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We’ll look at each of the four primary positions—quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end—and identify each player’s value at their current ADP. Through this series, we’ll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.
Houston retained offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, a massive win for C.J. Stroud and the entire offense. They also traded for star receiver Stefon Diggs and veteran running back Joe Mixon. On paper, this is one of the best offenses in the NFL, and fantasy managers have every reason to expect big things. Fantasy managers are hedging their bets on the team’s three pass-catchers, with all three being drafted inside the top 30 receivers. Something will have to give with those prices and their likely finishes. There is, after all, only one ball and so many targets to go around.
There are so many places fantasy managers can find ADP rankings, all of which differ to some extent. I used the ADP from FantasyPros, which can be found here. If you want to invest in your fantasy football leagues, consider subscribing to our premium account. Our premium tools can help you dominate your fantasy leagues. If you’d like to purchase our premium tools at RotoBaller, use promo code „BOOM” at checkout for a 10% discount.
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C.J. Stroud: QB5, ADP 46
In 14 full games Stroud played last season, he averaged 19.7 PPG. This would have ranked as the QB5 over the full year. We’re excluding his Week 14 contest against the Jets, where he threw just 91 yards but did play 86% of the snaps. We’re being generous, not counting that game. If we count it and exclude Week 18, which is typical, he ended up as the QB10 with an 18.5 PPG average.
In 14 games, Stroud finished with a 64.9% completion percentage, 23 touchdowns, five interceptions, and 4017 yards. His per-game averages in those contests would equal out to 4,878 yards, 28 touchdowns, and six interceptions over 17 games. He also chipped in with 39 rushes for 167 yards and three touchdowns. In those 14 games, Stroud averaged 34 attempts per game, 12th-highest among quarterbacks in 2023.
Excluding Week 14 and Week 18, Stroud had five top-10 weekly finishes last year in 13 contests. He had another five weekly finishes between QB11-QB15 and three outside the top 20. He had five weeks where he scored fewer than 15.5 points. None of that is to say he was bad or to paint him in a bad light, it’s more to say, “look where he finished despite being rather up and down yet as a rookie. Imagine the upside!”
Stroud is now entering his second season. Houston was able to retain offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. They traded for Diggs, and fantasy managers should expect healthier seasons from Dalton Schultz, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell, who missed 10 games combined. Stroud has arguably the best collection of pass-catchers among any quarterback in the NFL. Collins, Diggs, and Dell ranked seventh, 18th, and 25th in terms of receiving yards per game, respectively.
Given the acquisition of Diggs this offseason, we should expect the Texans to pass the ball even more than they did last season. Stroud is no longer a rookie, and the strength of their offense firmly lies in their quarterback and strong quartet of pass-catchers. It shouldn’t be surprising to see Stroud’s pass attempt per game average creep up to 36-37. That would push him from 12th to the top five in pass attempts.
He’ll need that volume to offset the lack of rushing. While Stroud did find the end zone three times on the ground last year, he finished with just 167 yards rushing. This fact makes Stroud tough to buy into for fantasy at his current price. In 2022, Kirk Cousins threw for 4,547 yards and 29 touchdowns and finished as the QB13. Granted, he had 14 interceptions, but he also provided next to nothing on the ground.
In the 14 games where Stroud played at least 90% of the snaps, he had a 19.7 PPG average. Dak Prescott averaged 20.4 PPG last year, and he’s being drafted as the QB9 with an ADP of 56. Jordan Love was in his first year as a starter and averaged 19.5 PPG. He’s being drafted as the QB8 with an ADP of 59. The last time we saw Joe Burrow healthy in 2022, he averaged 22.3 PPG and was drafted as the QB7 with an ADP of 58. Kyler Murray averaged 20.7 PPG in 2022 before tearing his ACL, and last year averaged 19.1 PPG and now has Marvin Harrison Jr. He’s being drafted as the QB10 with an ADP of 68. Stroud is an easy sell at his current price and ADP.
Verdict: Sell CJ Stroud
Joe Mixon: RB15, ADP 52
Dameon Pierce: RB60, ADP 197
In the past six seasons, Mixon has finished as the RB13 (2023), RB9 (2022), RB4 (2021), RB9 (2020), RB21 (2019), and RB9 (2018) in half-PPR PPG averages. He was in Cincinnati for those six seasons, but Joe Burrow has only been there since 2020. He missed six games in 2020 and seven in 2023. Burrow has been the starting quarterback for 52 of the 99 regular season games since 2018, roughly 52% of the time. Still, only once in the past six seasons has Mixon failed to finish in the top 15. He’s been a top-15 running back in the past four seasons, including three top-10 finishes.
Houston’s offense has many of the same strengths as Cincinnati’s over the past few seasons. Both offenses employ one of the best quarterbacks and have three very strong pass-catchers. Cincinnati had Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. This combination forces the defense to play with lighter boxes, focusing on stopping their passing attack, which makes life easier for Mixon.
Cincinnati has routinely finished in the top 10 in yards gained and points scored, and there’s no reason to expect Houston not to do the same. In Cincinnati, Mixon had a stranglehold on the backfield, and there’s good reason to believe that’ll be the case in Houston, as well.
From Weeks 1-8, Pierce averaged just three yards per carry. His incompetence led to Devin Singletary taking over as the starter in Week 9. Pierce was inactive in Weeks 9-11. From Weeks 12-Divisional Round of the playoffs, Singletary had 124 carries to Pierce’s 39. Singletary also had 31 targets to Pierce’s five. Singletary’s per-game averages over this nine-game sample would equate to him finishing with 234 rushing attempts and 59 targets.
The other thing to remember is it’s likely that Mixon receives a bigger share of the touches than Singletary did. There are a few red flags, however. From Weeks 9-18, Singletary’s expected half-PPR PPG average was 12.8. That would have finished as the RB20 last season. That’s certainly within shouting distance of Mixon’s RB15 ADP, but not quite there.
Devin Singletary took over the Texans’ backfield in Week 9 last year.
From then on, Singletary logged 69% of the snaps, averaged 19 touches and 13.5 PPR PPG. He was the RB13 during that span.
Is that Joe Mixon’s floor this season in Houston?
— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) July 2, 2024
The other concern is that Stroud did not target his running backs at nearly the same rate as Burrow. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t target his running backs. From Weeks 1-8, acting as the starter, Pierce had just 12 targets. The talent pool dictates where the targets go, and Pierce does not earn them. That fact makes their running back target shares somewhat misleading, but it’s still a concern because Stroud has Diggs, Collins, Dell, and Schultz. Will Mixon get as many targets as he has in Cincinnati? Since Burrow was drafted, Mixon has averaged 4.0 targets per game, or roughly 68 over 17 games.
The third and final concern rests with Mixon. He’ll be 28 before the season starts and has never been the poster boy for strong efficiency metrics. He’s largely made his fantasy living off of high touch totals, ample scoring opportunities, and a solid receiving profile. Luckily, Pierce was even more inefficient last season, which, at least, minimizes this risk. As does the new contract he signed this season. Still, I’d prefer Mixon’s ADP a touch closer to RB20. It’s not egregious, but he’s a slight sell at his current cost.
Pierce was one of the worst running backs in the NFL last season. There were 49 running backs who recorded at least 100 carries. Pierce ranked 48th in yards per attempt, 49th in rush success rate, and 38th in yards after contact per attempt. It’s hard to get excited about Pierce, even a handcuff. He started in Weeks 1-8 last year and averaged just 7.4 half-PPR PPG. If Mixon were to miss time, he’d be walking into the same situation he was in last season. What information do we have that says we should expect a different result? He’s cheap enough that drafting him won’t hurt you, but given how he performed last season, we can’t even be sure he’s the primary handcuff for Mixon.
Verdict: Sell Joe Mixon, Fair Price on Dameon Pierce
Nico Collins: WR13, ADP 20
Stefon Diggs: WR20, ADP 33
Tank Dell: WR29, ADP 56
Since 2020, there has not been a single team with three players with 100+ targets or more. That feat doesn’t happen, which should signal to all fantasy managers that one of these guys will most likely not live up to expectations. Three Texans’ receivers are being drafted ahead of the first receiver for the following teams: Jaguars, Commanders, Packers, Chiefs, Titans, Bills, Panthers, Chargers, and Broncos. Three Houston receivers are being drafted ahead of the No. 2 receivers for the Bengals (Tee Higgins) and Buccaneers (Chris Godwin). All of that is absurd.
If I were to compare the Houston offense, I would most likely go with the 2021 Chargers. Stroud is Justin Herbert. Collins is a slightly better and healthier version of Mike Williams. Keenan Allen is Stefon Diggs. This is where you need to use your imagination a bit. Very few teams have three legit receivers. The 2021 Chargers didn’t, but they did have Austin Ekeler, who had 94 targets, and Jared Cook, who had 83. Dell will get Ekeler’s quantity of targets plus a touch from Cook. Schultz is left with Cook’s slightly limited share. Dell’s targets won’t look like Ekeler’s, but I envision this in terms of target distribution.
Dell and Collins played seven games together last season, with each snap share at least 60%. In those games, they each recorded 52 targets. Collins slightly led the way with 37 receptions to Dell’s 35. Collins also led in receiving yards (601 to 562), and they each had five touchdowns. Dell had a 16.8 half-PPR PPG average during those seven weeks, and Collins had 14.8. However, Collins had the higher expected PPG average at 12.0 to Dell’s 11.4.
Just how good was Nico Collins in isolation last season? His #ReceptionPerception success rates put him in some truly exceptional high-end WR1 company. pic.twitter.com/lVzNbOuRx1
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) June 13, 2024
Dell scored five touchdowns during that span, but his expected touchdowns were just 1.7. Collins scored five, but his expected touchdowns were slightly higher at 3.4. During these seven weeks, their PPG averages would have landed them in the top 12, but their expected PPG averages would have only ranked as the WR20 (Collins) and WR24 (Dell). We haven’t even got to Diggs yet, but as you can see, fantasy managers are likely a bit too high on these three players collectively.
Is it possible for one of them to finish as the WR13? Absolutely. Is it possible one finishes as the WR13 and WR20? Yes! Is it likely that the three of them finish as the WR13, WR20, and WR29? Absolutely not. Some of the pricing is likely due to different opinions on which player – Collins or Dell – is the better player and if Diggs is washed, but regardless, these prices for the trio are too high across the board. One of them is indeed not living up to expectations.
While some will point to Diggs’ final eight games as evidence that he’s washed, I’d advise caution. Yes, during those final eight weeks, his production declined significantly. He was on pace for just 79 receptions and 742 yards off his per-game averages. However, that period also coincided with the change in offensive coordinator. During those eight games, Josh Allen also struggled to pass. His per-game averages during those final eight games would have equated to 23 touchdowns, 19 interceptions, a 60.3% completion percentage, and 4,001 yards. All would have been his worst numbers since 2019.
We can point the finger solely at Diggs, or we can be reasonable and conclude that Diggs’ struggles in the season’s final eight games are likely due to several reasons. Yes, one may be that he’s lost a step, but the offensive coordinator and Allen’s play didn’t help either. There’s a bit of variance at play here, as well, because there were 2-3 deep passes that Diggs was open on that Allen just missed. Catching 1-2 of those may have eliminated this narrative.
Diggs still posted a 29.5% target share (ninth-highest among receivers), 27.4% target rate (13th-highest), and another season with a yard-per-route run average above 2.00. His Reception Perception profile suggested that Diggs may have lost a step, but not in the manner some might believe. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception had this to say about Diggs’ 2023 season,
“The first sign that something is different with Diggs is that he took 54% of his sampled snaps off the life of scrimmage. That’s by far the highest rate since he arrived in Buffalo. The biggest area of the decline was in the downfield game, where his nine, corner, and dig route success sunk below the NFL average while his post-route score just clung to the average range. In fairness, he maintained elite success rates on the slant and curl. He is still the same technician we know and love. But the concentration of his route tree closer to the line of scrimmage was noticeable.”
As for my Keenan Allen comparison, which came from Matt Harmon, it makes a ton of sense when you consider their weapons and where his player wins. Collins can operate as the prototypical X-receiver. Dell is your classic flanker, while Diggs can transition to a full-time slot role. Matt Harmon first made that comparison, stating,
“On that note, it actually struck me while putting together Diggs’ profile just how similar his overall success rates and route charts were to Keenan Allen’s last season. Allen was highly productive last season despite experiencing a decline in his physical ability and overall separation further down the field because he’s still an elite technician. I don’t see any evidence on film to support any idea Diggs still doesn’t have all the same route-running virtuoso tricks he’s always had in his bag. You’ll remember that Allen let it slip during his introductory press conference with the Bears that the Texans were one of the teams that tried to trade for him.”
Houston targeting a player like Diggs and Allen makes a ton of sense. Stroud was second to only Will Levis in intended air yards per attempt at 9.0. Of 59 receivers with at least 75 targets, Dell ranked third, and Collins ranked 27th in average target depth at 14.3 yards and 10.9 yards, respectively. Noah Brown was also at 12.0 yards. Targeting a savvy route technician who can operate out of the slot and give Stroud some more manageable, shorter targets to keep drives moving makes a lot of sense, and Diggs should flourish in this role.
Diggs’s upside in Buffalo won’t be there because of the target competition but because his change in utilization will lower his yardage ceiling. Fantasy managers shouldn’t be surprised if Diggs still leads Houston in targets just because of the role he’ll be operating in. Most defenses will play a shell defense against Stroud with two safeties deep to take away around the downfield passing attack, and Diggs should feast in the short to intermediate part of the field out of the slot.
Collins is also due for some natural regression. Since 2000, just one receiver has had a 72% catch rate and a 14.5-yard per reception average on 100 or more targets. That player was Collins, at 73.4% and 16.2 yards per reception. We should be expecting some regression in both numbers.
Instances of a player averaging 3.1+ yards per route run in a single season since 2010 (PFF, min. 50 targets):
Tyreek Hill (2022, 2023)
Nico Collins (2023)
Cooper Kupp (2021)
George Kittle (2019)
Julio Jones (2016)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 14, 2024
Given Collins’ expected half-PPR PPG average in the seven games he played with Dell and no Diggs, which came in at WR20, and we should expect him to be a little less efficient in 2024, WR13 is a tough sell. I prefer to draft Collins more in the 15-18 range, Diggs in the 21-24 range, and Dell in the 33-36 range. Part of that is because we don’t know the target hierarchy or how they’ll be utilized. However, it’s incredibly difficult, impossible even, to avoid drafting some of these pass-catchers.
Given the strength of all three players, they will all negatively impact each other’s ceiling to some extent. I can’t remember the last time or if it’s ever happened where we saw a team support three top-30 receivers in a season where all of them played at least 14 games. Tampa did it a few years back, but Antonio Brown only played seven games, Chris Godwin missed three, and Rob Gronkowski also missed five. These injuries helped consolidate the targets.
Some will strongly feel about one or two of these pass-catchers (most likely Dell and Collins because of their youth), but I believe they’re all excellent receivers, including Diggs. I think Diggs will flourish as a full-time slot receiver. However, it’s tough to buy into any of these players at their given prices unless you have a strong take on one of them, which I do not have. Therefore, I believe Diggs and Collins’ prices are fair, maybe slightly too high, but given how strong this offense will be, you’ll have to pay the price to get a share. Dell’s price is somewhat too high since he could be third on the target hierarchy.
Verdict: Fair Price on Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs with a Slight Sell on Tank Dell
Dalton Schultz: TE14, ADP 127
Last year, Schultz tied for a TE10 finish with an 8.2 half-PPR PPG average. Fantasy managers recognize, at least to some extent, that won’t be repeated, not with Diggs in town. However, fantasy managers are not concerned about Schultz enough. Not only was Diggs not on the team last year, but Collins and Dell missed eight games! Schultz is still being drafted far too high.
If you recall from our receiver section, no team has had three players reach 100 targets since 2020. If no team has had 100 targets in the past three years, and there are very clearly three players ahead of Schultz on Stroud’s target hierarchy, how many targets will that leave for Schultz?
Fantasy managers should quickly and unequivocally prefer Pat Freiermuth to Schultz. They should also prefer Luke Musgrave, Taysom Hill, Hunter Henry, and yes, even Tyler Conklin. The truth is, Schultz has never been this great talent. He’s prospered, fantasy-wise, because of his excellent environment. First, it was in Dallas, and then, it was in Houston last season, with the injury to Dell. That excellent environment no longer exists. Yes, Stroud is awesome. Yes, Houston will be a great offense with excellent passing volume. No, none of that will matter unless one of the top three receivers gets hurt.
Schultz had a 17.5% target share last season. It was 18.7% in 2022 when he was in Dallas competing with Michael Gallup and Noah Brown for No. 2 honors behind CeeDee Lamb. It was 16.4% in 2021 when Dallas had Lamb and Amari Cooper. That might be our closest example of what Houston has receiver-wise, but even then, Dallas would still be missing Houston’s version of Dell. Realistically, we should expect Schultz’s target share to be 15% or lower.
If we expect Houston’s pass attempt per game average to increase to 36.5, a sizable margin, if we factor in roughly 6% for throwaways, a 15% target share would be 87 targets. Based on his career averages regarding catch percentage and yards per target, Schultz would finish with 60 catches and 617 yards. If we give him five touchdowns, that would be a 7.1 half-PPR PPG average. Last year that would have been good for TE15.
That’s pretty much exactly in line with his current positional ranking. However, it leaves very little room, if any, for Schultz to outplay his current ADP. His target share could dip to 14%, considering the trio of receivers he’s playing with and the improved talent at running back. Due to that lack of upside, Schultz is best avoided at his current price. There are better options at tight end later that have more opportunity for a higher outcome.
Verdict: Sell Dalton Schultz
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