In fantasy football, we often discuss early-round players or late-round sleepers to draft, but hardly ever consider those all-important middle-round picks. In fantasy terms, we define middle-round picks as the ones made in Rounds 8-12 in a 12-team league. That means we’re using Underdog ADPs of 96 to 144 at this stage as we are now in the heat of August. The visual below shows the draft grid of Rounds 8-12 on Underdog over the past two weeks.
When we hit the middle rounds, our excitement might decline. However, there’s a chance to capitalize on the uncertainty or lack of excitement based on the ambiguity of the player’s situation. This list below could be much longer than five because this is where we build the meat of our fantasy rosters.
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Sometimes the phrase „must-have” can be catchy, but we want to look at different player archetypes and profiles to target in the middle rounds. We’ll go through the why being the selection while discussing the team context and how that player fits since this list includes three rookies, plus two having offensive coaching and personnel changes impacting their fantasy value.
TE10, 96.4 Underdog ADP
The Raiders spent an early pick on a tight end in 2023 in Michael Mayer and followed it up with one of the best tight end prospects we’ve ever seen in Brock Bowers. He had a 22 percent Receiver Dominator Rating in 2022, which improved to 26 percent in 2023. Mayer had a better peak season, with a 37 percent Receiver Dominator in his final collegiate season, so it was surprising to see Mayer be unproductive for most last year, with over 64 percent of his games scoring as a TE3 averaging 2.8 PPR/G.
It’s partly on the quarterbacks because all three (Brian Hoyer, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Aidan O’Connell) scored negative passing fantasy points over expectation (PaFPOE/G), meaning they were inefficient passers in 2023. Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers soaked up most of the targets, evidenced by the Raiders targeting their receivers at the fourth-highest rate (67.6 percent) in the league. That put the Raiders behind the Rams (71.7 percent), Buccaneers (68.2 percent), and Dolphins (67.8 percent) among the leaders in target share to wide receivers.
Meanwhile, the Raiders had the third-lowest target share to the tight end position. They didn’t lack talent at tight end, so maybe it’s fluky or based on the team’s offensive personnel. Unsurprisingly, the entire Raiders’ offense struggled, ranking 24th in offensive total EPA/G at -4.57 ahead of the Commanders (-4.99) and Steelers (-5.40).
So why would Bowers be a must-have middle-round pick? It’s mostly buying into the prospect profile for Bowers. That’s evident in the closest comparisons involving Noah Fant, Dalton Kincaid, Tyler Eifert, Kyle Pitts, and David Njoku since 2010 based on college production and draft capital.
From a fantasy perspective, only nine tight ends were drafted in the first round since 2010. When we filter to tight ends drafted in the first two rounds, the number jumps to 30. Only six tight ends garnered 75 targets or more, with 11 players earning targets per route run rate of 20 percent or higher, though Jordan Matthews and Devin Funchess shouldn’t count since they started their careers as wide receivers. It might be an uphill battle, but Bowers has the talent to push the envelope as a pass-catcher.
Since Antonio Pierce took over, the Raiders ranked middle of the pack, tied for 15th in pass rate (57 percent). That’s a five percentage-point decrease from the first half of the season (62 percent) before Pierce became the interim head coach. The data suggests the Raiders might be a more balanced offense, focusing on the running game, though the team lost Josh Jacobs while adding Alexander Mattison and Dylan Laube in the backfield.
The age-old question involves whether personnel or coaching drives the offensive game plan and decisions. With the main receivers in Adams and Meyers staying with the team, can Bowers make an impact as a TE1 as a rookie? Last season, Kincaid and Sam LaPorta splashed at the position as rookies, though they were on a better offense.
The Raiders ranked 24th in 12-Personnel in 2023, but there have been rumblings about them using it more often with Bowers on the team. Even if we don’t see a significant uptick in 12-Personnel, Bowers possesses the talent to earn more targets and opportunities in the middle rounds as a backend TE1 with high-end upside.
It’s hard to imagine the Raiders taking Bowers No. 13 overall and not making him a foundational piece of their offense. Bowers had the majority of his college snaps either lined out wide, in the slot, or even in the backfield than he did as a traditional in-line tight end. In reality, he’s more of just an offensive weapon or wide receiver who happens to be wearing the tight end label.
RB32, 108.4 Underdog ADP
Remember the hype around Spears in the offseason? That disappeared quickly when Tony Pollard joined the squad at the beginning of free agency. Spears and Pollard have nearly identical skill sets, with age being the main factor. As a rookie, Spears garnered the fifth-highest target share (15 percent), with tons of yards after the catch, evidenced by his 8.8 YAC/Rec (No. 11). Meanwhile, Pollard had an 11 percent target share (No. 22), with 5.8 YAC/Rec (No. 27).
As rushers, Pollard (2.6) and Spears (2.7) matched each other in yards after contact per attempt (YAC/Att), but Spears blasted him in evasion rate (21 percent vs. 13 percent). The same trend occurred when looking at the evasion rate as receivers. Spears had a ridiculous 38 percent receiving evasion rate rate compared to Pollard at just 13 percent.
Among running backs with 50 targets, Spears had the third-highest receiving evasion rate behind Travis Etienne (41 percent) and Breece Hall (38 percent). That indicates Spears forces missed tackles at a high rate compared to Pollard, making the Year 2 running back the one to target in the middle rounds.
The ADP market tends to lean toward using a Zero-RB approach in drafts, and Spears fits the mold going around pick 100 in Underdog drafts. Spears goes in a range where we’re arguably in the wide receiver dead zone anyway, and we should be soaking up the running back value instead. The Titans hired former Bengals’ offensive coordinator Brian Callahan to be their new head coach. Over the past two seasons, the Bengals ranked tied for second in pass rate (64 percent) while the Titans ranked 27th.
We expect the Titans to pass the ball more often, helping their pass catchers, especially the backfield. Last season, the Titans ranked 7th in running back target share (22.2 percent) with the Bengals at 28th (15 percent). We expect the Titans to maintain their high running back target rate with Pollard and Spears. Make Spears the priority, but it will be worth investing in the Titans’ backfield, including Pollard.
Trey Benson, RB – Arizona Cardinals
RB35, 120.3 Underdog ADP
It’s hard to harp on James Conner’s age and inefficiency after he smashed in 2023. Among running backs with 150 carries, Conner ranked first in YAC/Att at 3.4, head of Christian McCaffrey (3.1) and Jonathan Taylor (3.1). Conner trailed Jaylen Warren (30 percent), Jahmyr Gibbs (27 percent), and Kenneth Walker (26 percent) in running back evasion rate at 21 percent, ranking fourth.
Conner had his second-most efficient season in Year 7, averaging 2.2 FPOE/G (No. 8) due to his career-best five yards per carry and nine touchdowns (seven rushing, two receiving). If we’re talking positively about Conner, why should we consider the rookie Benson in the middle rounds? It’s a mixture of the potential opportunity if Conner misses time combined with the underlying metrics for Benson.
Benson had his most productive collegiate season from a touchdown and receiving perspective, with 900 rushing yards, 14 rushing scores, and 227 receiving yards in 2023. That led to a 45 percent Running Back Dominator rating. Since 2010, Benson’s top comparisons based on his college production include Miles Sanders, Darrynton Evans, Knile Davis, Lamar Miller, and Kerryon Johnson. While that list doesn’t inspire confidence beyond Sanders and Miller, Benson has juicy underlying metrics. Javonte Williams had slightly better draft capital while garnering a better collegiate receiving role, with a worse Speed Score than Benson.
Benson posted an elite Speed Score in the 95th percentile, showing his size-adjusted straight-line speed. His speed is evident by his second-highest rate of rushing yards of 15+ or more in his career (54.5 percent) and the third-most among the 2024 running back prospects. Benson had a respectable 3.53 YAC/Att in 2023 and the highest rate of forced missed tackles at 39.2 percent in his collegiate career among the 30 running back prospects.
The Cardinals ranked eighth in rush rate under head coach Jonathan Gannon as head coach, with a lowly 15.6 percent running back target share in 2023 (No. 25). We know rookies can pick up steam in the latter half of the season, so we’re projecting ahead for Benson. While we might have chased the Cardinals’ backup running backs to Conner before, one could argue Benson may be the most talented of the bunch.
The list of others sorted by EP/G includes Chase Edmonds, Eno Benjamin, Emari Demercado, and Darrel Williams. Last season, rookie De’Von Achane hit in the middle rounds, giving us the fourth-highest win rate among running backs. Benson might fit a similar mold of a rookie being drafted in the middle rounds worth drafting due to his collegiate profile and advanced metrics.
Ja’Lynn Polk, WR – New England Patriots
WR61, 129.1 Underdog ADP
The Washington Huskies had a loaded roster on offense, including Polk. He peaked as a senior, with 69 receptions, 1,159 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns, translating to a 25 percent Receiver Dominator rating. Polk trailed Rome Odunze’s 33 percent Receiver Dominator with Jalen McMillan at 23 percent in 2023.
NFL teams valued Polk above McMillan based on his early second-round draft capital. Some of Polk’s top comparisons include Jonathan Mingo (woof), Josh Palmer, Rashee Rice, Amari Rodgers, and Josh Huff since 2010. Besides Palmer and Rice, the rest of the list looks worrisome, especially considering Michael Pittman Jr. has a lower similarity score based on Polk’s collegiate production and draft capital.
Polk posted a decent 2.57 yards per route run (YPRR) against man, with a mediocre YPRR versus zone (2.09) per PFF. He bested McMillan in YPRR versus man (2.17), with McMillan finishing slightly better against zone defenses (2.33 YPRR). The Huskies used Polk as a weapon outside (58.7 percent) and in the slot role (41.1 percent). It’s worth noting Polk’s slot rate gradually increased from 37.3 percent in 2022, doubling his rate in 2021 at 12.8 percent. That indicates Polk entered his collegiate career with the Huskies as an outside receiver, and they found ways to move him around the formation.
The main receiving pieces returning to the Patriots’ offense involve Kendrick Bourne, Demario Douglas, and Hunter Henry. They added Polk and Javon Baker via the draft while K.J. Osborn was a free-agent signee. I wrote about Baker earlier in the off-season as a YPRR sleeper, and we’ll want to keep tabs on his big-play ability. The Patriots project to have the lowest win totals in 2024, meaning we might be able to mine for value with their offensive pieces. Only Rhamondre Stevenson has an ADP inside the top 100 picks among the Patriots’ offensive players being drafted.
Polk remains the second-highest Patriots’ player behind Stevenson, with Douglas at WR69 (155.6 ADP) and Henry at TE18 (157.9 ADP) close behind him. Last season, the team ranked 23rd in target share to the receiver position. However, they upgraded their passing offense by drafting Drake Maye amid plenty of coaching staff changes. Without the Patriots having a near-elite target earner, Polk could turn into Maye’s top target in the receiving game, making him an enticing middle-round draft pick based on his collegiate production and performing better against man defenses.
TE13, Underdog ADP 128.7
The Steelers have been one of the teams with only one pass catcher drafted in the top 100 picks in George Pickens (39.2 ADP, WR27). Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren sit next to each other as RB22 and RB23, but the next Steelers’ pass catcher doesn’t go until Pat Freiermuth, with another 50+ picks later for Roman Wilson (187.2 ADP, WR81).
The market indicates fantasy managers may be staying away or there’s uncertainty with the quarterback and offensive coordinator changes. However, when we can roster a tight end that could be the second option in the receiving game, we’ll want to prioritize the potential volume. That’s the case with Freiermuth, who saw his target share dip to 14 percent (No. 19) in 2023 from 19 percent (No. 6) in 2022.
Without Diontae Johnson, Pickens should garner a target share of 25 percent or more, with Freiermuth’s volume bouncing back to around 20 percent. Tight ends who earn a target share of 20 percent or higher typically land in the near-elite group at the position. The visual above shows the tight end leaders in target share combined since 2018, showing the ceiling potential for Freiermuth’s volume in 2024.
The Steelers and Falcons have a similar team context where they relied heavily on the running game last season. The Steelers ranked 27th in pass rate (54 percent), with the Falcons at 29th (53 percent). Can you guess which team had the highest percentage of their targets toward tight ends? It’s the Falcons at No. 1 (34.3 percent) and the Cardinals at second (33.1 percent), the only two teams with a target share to the tight end position of 30 percent or higher.
Arthur Smith being the Steelers’ offensive coordinator should bode well for the running back and the tight end position. It’s worth noting Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith ran more routes in the slot, with Arthur Smith as the Falcons’ OC. Pitts saw his slot route rate jump to a career-high of 58.5 percent in 2023. Smith’s slot rate went over 20 percentage points higher to 52.8 percent than his career average (31.7 percent) with the Falcons last season. Meanwhile, Freiermuth’s slot route rate increased to a career-high in 2023 (48.9 percent), so it looks like a natural fit to feed Freiermuth in the receiving game as the Steelers’ second-best option behind Pickens.
If we miss out on the more expensive tight end options earlier, we want to find a player in the middle rounds that could become a high-end weekly option. Freiermuth fits that archetype of a player to target at the respective position. Though the overall passing rate may not increase with Justin Fields and Russell Wilson battling for the starting quarterback role, we should project a target share shift in favor of Freiermuth with the offensive coordinator changes, team context, and past tendencies. Prioritize Freiermuth in the middle rounds.
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