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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard – The RSM Classic
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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The RSM Classic
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
- Units: +327.863 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2024
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament — all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
First-Round Leader Article
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
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TeeOffSports membership
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Field
Field Size: 156
Cut: Top-65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 1
Last Five Winners of the RSM Classic
| 2023 | Ludvig Aberg | -29 |
| 2022 | Adam Svensson | -19 |
| 2021 | Taylor Gooch | -22 |
| 2020 | Robert Streb | -19 |
| 2019 | Tyler Duncan | -19 |
Expected Cut-Line At the RSM
| 2023 | -6 |
| 2022 | -7 |
| 2021 | -5 |
| 2020 | -5 |
| 2019 | -4 |
Sea Island Golf Club
7,005 Yards – Par 70 – Greens: Bermuda
Sea Island was designed in 1928 by Harry Colt and C.H. Allison but underwent some restorations from Tom Fazio in 1998. As I always note with a Fazio design, the main takeaway will be the extreme undulation throughout. However, this isn’t your prototypical setup from a contextual standpoint that you always get from the now 79-year-old.
Fazio kept most of the links-style quirks from the original layout. We see that when diving into easy-to-hit fairways, which will be a necessity to locate since the field connects on 80 percent of their greens in regulation when hitting their approach shots from the shortgrass. That total ranks as highly as any course on tour and likely accounts for the reduction in around-the-green performance since the width of the fairways will also average 7.2 yards wider than your standard setup.
All of that is rather basic from an expectation standpoint. Find a bunch of fairways and use that iron proximity from 100-175 yards (8.2% increase) to locate opportunities, but there are a few diverse and unique traits that we should talk about further before jumping into other factors.
One of the notable differences this week that we at least need to be aware of from a game theory perspective is that players will be forced to play either their Thursday or Friday rounds on the secondary Plantation Course. That adds a more challenging wrinkle to handicap statistically since rotational events change what is being asked from the field between days.
We also have an eye-popping nine par-fours measuring between 400 and 450 yards. I will call it 10 for my research since one is just outside at 452, but the only two outliers will be the 368-yard eighth hole and the 470-yard 18th. That is one of the reasons we see a consolidated emphasis on approach shots from 100 to 175 yards.
Add all that to the fact that 8.3% more putts get made from 10 feet and beyond than what we are accustomed to on tour, and you get a model that does suggest a wonky variation of a pitch-and-putt contest because of the steady distribution of shorter anticipated yardages repeatedly given for the week in what sometimes becomes blustery conditions.
Consider this one of those three-pronged outlooks of needing to find the fairway, capitalizing as much as possible with your irons to create score-worthy looks and having the ability to hit your flat stick on a soft Bermuda surface that can be speedier than expected. If you do those three answers, you will have a chance to succeed at a venue there for the taking.
Strokes Gained Dispersion Importance
***These are the expected production rates for players that landed under each threshold.
Winners
OTT – 13.9%
APP – 27%
ATG – 15%
Putt -44.1%
Top Five Performers
OTT – 16.6%
APP – 33.3%
ATG – 9%
Putt -41.1%
Top 10 Performers
OTT – 16.8%
APP – 32.9%
ATG – 10.2%
Putt -40.1%
Top 20 Performers
OTT – 19.8%
APP – 30.1%
ATG – 10.3%
Putt -39.6%
Cut Makers
OTT – 20.1%
APP – 28.1%
ATG – 10.7%
Putt -40.9%
One of the factors you might notice is that the better you are off-the-tee at this course, the more correlated you are in making the cut.
Also, putting averaged a 41%+ rate when combining anyone who made the cut. That is a very high percentage that will turn this into a putting contest.
Let’s Look at the Stats
| Stat | Sea Island | PGA Average |
| Driving Distance | 276 | 283 |
| Driving Accuracy | 70% | 61% |
| GIR Percentage | 74% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 57% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.58 | 0.54 |
Key Stats
Let’s quickly run through how I built my model.
Weighted Strokes Gained Total (35%)
Recent Strokes Gained Total (10%)
Strokes Gained Total – Less Than 7,200 Yards (10%)
Strokes Gained Total: Wind (10%)
Strokes Gained Total – Bermuda (10%)
Strokes Gained Putting – Similar Greens (7.5%)
Weighted Scoring (20%)
Total Number of Top-10’s Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model
I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren’t doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.
First Look Into Outright Bets
| Player | Price |
| Ben Griffin | 35 |
| Brian Harman | 33 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 66 |
| Taylor Montgomery | 400 |
| Andrew Putnam | 65 |
| Sam Ryder | 175 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 175 |
Better Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form
(Players that are likely to be better for this property) – Only look at top 50 projected players for either 'Overall’ or 'Upside’
A lot of bets or close calls in this section.
Sam Ryder was technically the best fit for „poor recent form” golfers.
Worse Expected Weighted Form Versus Recent Form
My model found issues with Gary Woodland.
I wanted to find a way to fade him this week, but markets have been sticky so far with who they are matching him up against.
Golfers to Land in the Top 60 of the Field for All Categories
Golfers to Land in the Top 50 of the Field for All Categories
Golfers to Land in the Top 45 of the Field for All Categories
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week’s event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
***There are three players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.
I am curious to see where ownership lands.
There is a real world where the industry neglects the idea of playing Ludvig Aberg, which would add some intrigue to someone who hasn’t played since his knee surgery a handful of months ago.
At this answer’s most basic level, I believe Denny McCarthy is the safest option. Aberg has the most upside. And Thompson will likely be my odd-man out in this range.
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Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer’s data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
We will see if this sentiment holds true, but the fact that Brian Harman looked like the worst American at the Presidents Cup and failure to play elsewhere during the fall could give us an excellent leverage opportunity for someone my model loved from an upside perspective.
Harman ranked first for Weighted Strokes Gained Total, second for short courses and graded as the top-ranked player when combining all four par-four locations. Any of the sites that placed him inside the 30/1 range on Monday was a considerable mistake. I assume most locations land closer to that 25/1 total.
I also discussed Ben Griffin’s profile at the Bermuda Championship when I backed him and how his ceiling rises exponentially on similar green complexes. While we did see his recent putting acumen climb to a fringe top 50 player in this field on any surface after last week’s performance, his top-10 grade for Weighted Putting at this facility continues to provide optimism if he can get off to a quicker start.
Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$8,000 Range
We have seen my model consistently find value during the Fall season in J.J. Spaun, Andrew Novak and Doug Ghim.
Their lack of win equity has mostly hurt ownership returns (I don think Novak sees popularity after his second), but there is a real argument to be made that any of those options could have landed in the $9,000 section.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)
Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!
There were six players in the $7,000 section to feature inside the top-60 of my model for all seven categories.
Ryo Hisatsune would be the boom-or-bust option from my sheet that I will have exposure to because of his Bermuda strokes gained data.
Andrew Putnam would be the name that I feel best about if trying to make a cut and work up the leaderboard. I think there is a decent chance that the industry overreacts to his failed performance last week.
$6,000 Options to Consider
K.H. Lee/Taylor Montgomery/Justin Suh would be GPP-only targets for me. Very low floor but reasonable ceiling.
Sam Ryder presents the best playability after landing top 60 for all seven categories, landing 14th in Expected Weighted Strokes Gained Total.
That total made him the largest increase in my sheet when comparing course fit versus recent form.
Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):
$10,000+ – Ludvig Aberg/Denny McCarthy (Let’s see where ownership lands)
$9,000+ – Brian Harman/Ben Griffin
$8,000+ – J.J. Spaun/Doug Ghim/Andrew Novak
$7,000+ – Andrew Putnam
$6,000+ – Sam Ryder
Least Favorite Play Each Section (Monday):
***This still has time to change
$10,000+ – Davis Thompson
$9,000+ – Matt Wallace
$8,000+ – Chris Kirk
$7,000+ – Gary Woodland
$6,000+ – Let’s look into ownership later in the week
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Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
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