Alas, we have arrived for the first round of the 2024 FedEx Cup Playoffs at familiar TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. It’s going to be scorching hot as players are focused on making a run at East Lake for the Tour Championship, ironically hoping to avoid water at all costs this week at TPC Southwind. The field size has been cut to 70, and there will be no cut, ensuring that all players will tee up knowing that they will play all four rounds.
Through the years, the scoring would indicate that TPC Southwind has gotten easier, but that could have something to do with the guaranteed top 70 players in the world being all inside the field. The length of the course is not going to prohibit the shorter hitters from competing. We have seen winners from various ranges on the odds board and differentiating skill sets. That said, we have historical data from TPC Southwind dating back nearly 30 years that we can rely on to help predict a winner and project player rankings for the week.
As always, with this article, my primary goal is to provide a place to start your research and preparation for the upcoming week. I have carefully evaluated the field-to-project proper course fits and looked heavily into how players’ incoming form has been in the categories that matter the most at TPC Southwind. This will give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping the playoffs. Here are my top 10 players to watch out for and a brief write-up of my reasons why I think they will crush it this week in Memphis.
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No. 10 – Aaron Rai
I’m not going to be the one that draws a redline through Aaron Rai this week because „he can’t possibly win two in a row.” Remember, we have entered Lucas Glover SZN. Everything that Aaron Rai does well, also works exceptionally to his advantage at TPC Southwind. Rai has his Driver on a string, blistering his low-flighted cut with precision that makes you feel like he can’t possibly miss a fairway at times.
He’s also hitting Driver on holes that other players are laying back because he has such incredible trust in his accuracy off the tee. He’s not only driving it well, but Rai’s approach play has always been phenomenal of late. He ranks top 1o in strokes gained approach and greens-in-regulation over the last 30 rounds played. He showed me a lot last week, but mostly he possesses the guts and confidence to do it under immense pressure. There weren’t many players that hit a better approach shot into the difficult final hole all day at the Wyndham.
72nd hole pressure with the tournament on the line.
Aaron Rai shows no nerves with his approach. pic.twitter.com/5wzs0XIMMM
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 12, 2024
No. 9 – Patrick Cantlay
2024 has been a complete bust of a season for Patrick Cantlay. I believe he likely bit off more than he could chew with added pressure and responsibilities on the Tour Player policy board and that it has adversely impacted his performance. I think this is his final chance to turn that all around, and he’s walking in Memphis with a little extra pep due to a 2nd place result at this event last season.
When I think about Patrick Cantlay’s biggest weapon, it’s a maniacally hot putter under pressure from 10-20 ft. He seemingly has that weapon back in the bag. Cantlay gained five strokes putting at Pinehurst and another five at the Travelers. His current run of form has produced the best results all season, including three consecutive top-25 finishes and two top-5s in his last three starts. If we are going to see any semblance of a stone-faced Patty-Ice putting to win a tournament, the best option left on the table is the St. Jude Championship.,
No. 8 – Hideki Matsuyama
You’ve never seen Hideki Matsuyama more happy with a 3rd place result than he was a few weeks ago when he was proudly sporting a bronze medal on the podium in France. He should be proud. Matsuyama was never really in the hunt at any Majors this season but it should not diminish a great year for him. He medaled at the Olympics and also won at Riviera which is widely considered to be one of the best non-Majors on the schedule.
He continues to dominate Tee-to-Green and his ability to be in complete control of his golf ball is emphasized on courses like TPC Southwind that feature a ton of water. I looked at BallStriking numbers and Tee-to-Green stats on courses that have a ton of water and Matsuyama ranks top 3 in both categories. Like Cantlay, he has a great track record at TPC Southwind with three consecutive top 20 finishes at this tournament. He could make another run at adding to the trophy cabinet this week.
No. 7 – Tom Kim
When you look at the players who have been the best Tee-to-Green in the last three months, Tom Kim’s name is in the top tier. He’s absolutely grooving it with the Driver right now, hitting the fairway nearly 70% of the time in his last six tournaments. His lack of pure power will not be overly penalized this week as it is far more important to be accurate than it is long. The recent Ballstriking metrics are through the roof and we are just waiting for the week when he can combine it with a hot putter.
The putter has clearly been the part where he has struggled the most, but every 4-5 events, you will see a massive spike that gives me hope. Kim has finished inside the top 25 at this event in both his previous appearances at the St. Jude Championship. He was disappointed in the final result at Le Golf National, but he should still consider that his current form is the best of this season. I think he makes for a nice bet this week at anything over 35-1.
No. 6. Tommy Fleetwood
He’s always been a consistent, reliable striker of the golf ball. That said, this recent run that Tommy Fleetwood has put together in the summer of 2024 may indeed be his best ever. Since the Masters in April, Fleetwood has gained strokes on the field from tee to green in every start but one. In his last eight starts held in the U.S., he has easily made every cut and has finished 26th or better in seven of those eight events.
Much like Tom Kim, Fleetwood is hitting nearly 70% of fairways, and he is averaging +0.6 strokes gained on Approach per round played over his last 30 rounds with shotlink data. His reliable accuracy has always allowed him to play well on courses where the primary defense is water, much like it was at Le Golf National, where he just took home the Silver medal. It’s going to happen for Fleetwood, and when it does, watch out. Just keep knocking on the door.
I honestly never had this as a dream as a kid but it definitely became one in recent years. Golf is a beautiful sport. The passion, the emotion and the energy felt out there today was magical thank you!!
I couldn’t be prouder to contribute to @teamgb’s medal count and represent… pic.twitter.com/XOTZq1B1mY— Tommy Fleetwood (@TommyFleetwood1) August 4, 2024
No. 5 – Ludvig Aberg
Even though he technically won the RSM Classic in this PGA Tour season, it feels like an empty season for Ludvig Aberg. He’s captured the eyes of so many with his pleasant smile and perfect golf swing. He’s candid in interviews and seemingly quite down to Earth, blessed with incredible talent that I believe will him to world #1 sooner rather than later. But let’s face it, we want to see him slay dragons and get his signature win. I think it can come this week.
TPC Southwind puts a premium on straight, but Aberg has the unique ability to pair that with effortless distance when he’s on. He’s a top-3 player in the field in terms of Strokes gained Off-The-Tee. We knew he would crush it there, but it’s his approach play and wedge game that has really taken me by a bit of a surprise. He’s been so elite, flooding the stat charts with green. Take a look at this page. This is the stat profile is a player that is ready to win.
No. 4 – Xander Schauffele
This one feels a bit squeamish, but let me explain. We’re in a world where the two best players in the world are Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele. He’s not quite Scottie, but he’s also better than anybody else. I just don’t love Bermuda grass-laden courses that feature a ton of water as the primary defense for Xander Schauffele. Can he win anywhere? Of course, he nearly did just that at Le Golf National, but eventually, it bit him.
There’s a reason he chooses to basically avoid these kind of golf courses when making his own schedule. His history at TPC Southwind would add some substance to that as well. Schauffele finished T6 in 2020, but his other results in his last five appearances at St. Jude have been T24, T57, T46, and T27. Make no mistake, he’s in tremendous form, and he can win, but there just happens to be three other players that I have ranked with higher win potential for this specific week.
No. 3 – Collin Morikawa
Collin Morikawa has been ringing the bell all summer, letting us know he’s outside the door and waiting to come in, but it’s high time he kicks that door down. We know he’s amongst the most accurate players off the tee on the entire PGA Tour and he’s been leveraging it with great success of late. The iron play that won him multiple Major Championships has returned to peak levels, and he’s back to attacking golf courses, unafraid of any tucked pin location or risky shots.
Morikawa has been above average at TPC Southwind, but I think when his career is all said and done, we will look back at this course being one of the best fits for his game on the PGA Tour. He checks all the boxes for success. We have seen a significantly improved putter from Morikawa and you can just tell that he is putting in all the work. Winning takes a little bit of luck and a lot of self-belief. If he’s going to get his much-deserved win, this is his spot.
No. 2 – Rory McIlroy
Would it surprise you to know that Rory McIlroy is one of the players who raises his baseline performance from tee to green on golf courses with an abundance of water hazards? I almost couldn’t believe it either, but the numbers don’t lie. Occasionally erratic, yes, but I also don’t believe we give McIlroy enough credit for his decision-making and ability to hit the ball both ways, which can effectively eliminate the side of the fairway with the most trouble or, in the case, the water.
Now, I understand what happened in France. He charged up the leaderboard before falling victim to a somewhat chunky wedge in the drink. It’s been that way at TPC Southwind, also. Boom or bust. McIlroy has finished T3 and T4 in his last 5 starts here but is also near the bottom in two other chances. I think this is one of the weeks in which not many people are excited about betting or playing Rory McIlroy, and from my experience, those are often the best weeks to hop on.
One of Rory’s best rounds on Tour was at TPC Southwind in 2019. Went on to shoot a Saturday 62 making 120+ feet worth of putts! pic.twitter.com/ZWm0lnd4XG
— Rory Tracker (@RoryTrackr) August 8, 2023
No. 1 – Scottie Scheffler
What an epic charge it was on that early Sunday morning a few weeks ago outside of Paris, France. He did it again! I wasn’t fully immersed in professional golf at the time when Tiger Woods held the entire tour at his fingertips, so this season by Scheffler feels like the best I have ever seen and truly appreciated. We think of Scheffler as a conservative player in total control at all times, but when it comes time to hit the gas, like Sunday at the Olympics and Sunday at The PLAYERS, he’s also the best in the world at that!
Amidst his numerous wins, this season includes events at Le Golf National, Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass, and Bay Hill. They are all courses in which the primary defense mechanism is water. It’s reasonable to suggest that the increased emphasis on controlling your golf ball only further increases his advantage. We likely have yet another week where all the analysis you put in doesn’t really matter all that much because, in the end, Scottie Scheffler reigns supreme. Good on you, Scottie.
Enjoy the FedEx St. Jude Championship and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
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