Strona główna Aktualności Overvalued, Undervalued Dynasty Trade Targets: Week 15 (2024)

Overvalued, Undervalued Dynasty Trade Targets: Week 15 (2024)

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Well, RotoBallers, we made it. The fantasy playoffs are officially here. Because we’re talking dynasty, you of course don’t need to have made the playoffs to take something away from this column, but congratulations if you did!

Even if you have a bye in Week 15, there are plenty of reasons to stay active and make some last-minute trades in your pursuit of a championship. Dynasty deals are so interesting because of the element of future-casting that goes into each negotiation. Sure, you can sell all of your young players and picks for proven commodities, but what will your team look like if you fall short of a title? The inverse is true for rebuilding squads; trading all of your win-now pieces for draft capital seems like a great idea until you’re forced to make a bunch of third-round picks on players who may never see the field.

I always try to keep this in mind when discussing players to trade for or away in dynasty. The players I’m targeting this week won’t cost an arm and a leg to acquire but can still help considerably during the playoff stretch, and the players I’m looking to trade away should yield some meaningful draft capital that will assist next year. Let’s dive in.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

 

Be sure to also bookmark the free fantasy football trade analyzer tool. Compare up to three players for each side of the fantasy football trade and get instant advice on which side is better. Compare stats and projections to help solidify your decisions.

 

T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings

I mentioned T.J. Hockenson as a redraft trade target ahead of Week 12, and although he came through in a big way initially, he has been pretty quiet over the past two weeks. Hockenson was held to just four receptions and 45 yards in a blowout win against the Falcons last week while Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison went nuclear.

There is a positive way to look at Hockenson’s Week 14 showing, however. Two of Minnesota’s six touchdowns came from at least 49 yards out. Jefferson and Addison were winning downfield, and these scores on deep balls took Hockenson off the field quickly.

Additionally, four receptions for 45 yards on five targets isn’t that bad when two other pass-catchers go for over 130 yards. This was a ceiling game for the wide receiver corps. If Hockenson can provide 6.5 half-PPR points as a floor, that’s nothing to scoff at, especially at the tight-end position.

Josh Oliver, who has been solid for the Vikings this season, returned to the lineup on Sunday after missing two games with an ankle injury. Before his absence, Oliver outsnapped Hockenson in three straight contests and outgained him twice in that span. Despite Oliver’s presence last week, Hockenson operated as the primary pass-catching tight end in his sixth game back from an ACL tear.

Hockenson ran 29 routes to Oliver’s seven. Going forward, we can expect this role to translate into more fantasy production. For the fantasy playoff stretch, Hockenson will face the Bears, Seahawks, and Packers. All three teams surrender more than 10 fantasy points per game to tight ends, and Hockenson just logged seven receptions for 114 yards against Chicago in Week 12.

So far, I’ve only made the case for acquiring Hockenson on a contending team. But he’s a relatively safe dynasty asset regardless of your team’s standing. Hockenson signed a massive extension with the Vikings last year and is poised to be a focal point of a pass-friendly offense through at least 2027.

With J.J. McCarthy likely taking over for Sam Darnold next season, we could see Hockenson become a security blanket for a quarterback in his first campaign as a starter. This is not a situation dynasty gamers should be worried about, and it could be an upgrade for Hockenson in particular.

When you think about the top dynasty tight ends, Brock Bowers and Trey McBride should immediately come to mind. But who’s next? Sam LaPorta is the most obvious answer, but let’s not pretend that he’s met expectations in 2024. At age 27, Hockenson could certainly establish himself as a top-3 dynasty option for the position.

After these four, there is a hodgepodge of aging players and young hopefuls who haven’t shown any consistency at the professional level.

I’d be willing to send a late first-round pick in non-Superflex formats to acquire Hockenson, and there are several veteran receivers and running backs I’d trade for him on a non-playoff team.

Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers

Even if Brandon Aiyuk suffered a season-ending injury before Week 1, I highly doubt that Jauan Jennings would have been drafted as a fantasy WR2. Alas, here we are in Week 15, and Jennings is the WR19 overall and the WR15 in fantasy points per game.

How anyone could still be skeptical of Jennings, who is somehow rostered in just 81% of redraft leagues on Sleeper, is a mystery. He is incredibly undervalued in dynasty as well. While writing this, I saw Jennings and a 2025 fourth-round rookie pick traded for a 2026 second-round rookie pick in a Superflex dynasty league.

The hesitation to value him as a top-30 wide receiver in dynasty is understandable. Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey should return at some point next season and Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle are still under contract.

However, given Samuel’s lack of production this year, it wouldn’t be surprising to see San Francisco move on from him in the offseason, especially when the team has so much money invested in the offense and is yet to sign its franchise quarterback to a long-term extension.

By all accounts, Brock Purdy will get the bag from the 49ers in 2025. Although it’s difficult to imagine a world where Samuel is cut, the move would save San Francisco a substantial amount of money if it can’t get anything of value in a trade.

Samuel has just two total touchdowns on 72 touches for 645 yards. He has not been close to the elite playmaker we saw in 2021 and 2023. Jennings, on the other hand, has been balling.

Just look at the company Jennings is in. Yards per route run is a telling efficiency metric that has helped to identify budding stars that may not get many opportunities, but excel when they are made available. At 26.6 routes per contest, Jennings isn’t running as many routes as Justin Jefferson or Nico Collins but is performing comparably.

It’s clear Jennings has excellent chemistry with Purdy, specifically near the end zone. He has 14 red-zone targets this season, eight of which were caught, and five of which resulted in six points. It’s also important to remember that Jennings was notably better than Aiyuk in three of the six games they suited up for together.

Jennings is under contract with the 49ers through the end of the 2025 campaign, at which point he’ll enter unrestricted free agency. If he leaves San Francisco then, it will probably be for a nice sum of money and a starting opportunity. At 27 years old, Jennings is relatively young and a worthwhile dynasty investment at cost.

If you’re chasing a title and have a 2025 second-round rookie pick available, you’re not risking that much by trading it for a receiver who has proved he can deliver week-winning upside. With matchups against the Rams, Dolphins, and Lions left to play, lock Jennings in as a top-15 option for your playoff run.

 

Davante Adams, New York Jets

Similar to T.J. Hockenson, Davante Adams is a player I suggested trading for in redraft leagues a few weeks ago. After a slow two-week start to his tenure with the Jets, Adams has delivered more often than not and is the WR12 since Week 9.

He and quarterback Aaron Rodgers connected nine times for 109 yards and a touchdown in last week’s loss to the Miami Dolphins. It was a great performance in a week that some fantasy managers needed it most, right before the start of the playoffs.

To be fair, Adams should find success over the next two weeks in favorable matchups against the Jaguars and Rams. But Rodgers and this Jets offense have been wildly inconsistent all season, making it impossible to have total confidence in Adams every week.

If you are a strong contender, there’s nothing wrong with rolling with Adams the rest of the way, but just keep in mind that he’ll go on the road to face the Bills in Week 17. This is far from an ideal situation when you’re competing for a championship, as Buffalo surrenders the 12th-fewest fantasy points to receivers.

If your team with Adams missed the playoffs, trading him away now is a no-brainer. He has scored a touchdown in two consecutive games, presenting the perfect opportunity to sell high.

This organization is in turmoil. No one has any idea what the Jets are going to look like in 2025.

Reports that Rodgers does not want to play for New York in 2025 circulated in November. Rodgers himself quickly dismissed these claims but also stated that he hasn’t decided whether or not he will play at all next season. Seemingly, the Jets aren’t too keen on continuing the Rodgers era regardless.

Could this mean a QB upgrade is in store for Adams? Sure, maybe. Could this mean the Jets are somehow worse next year? Yes, that’s feasible. Could this mean Adams is traded or released? Quite possibly.

Adams’ current contract will essentially allow him to decide his future. If he chooses to move on from New York next season, it could be for greener pastures, but we have already seen twice now that Adams prefers to play with quarterbacks he is familiar with. That doesn’t leave him many options unless he is willing to change his approach for the last few years of his career.

The six-time Pro Bowler is about to turn 32 and has seen a decline in statistical output over the past two seasons, albeit in subpar offenses. There are just too many factors at play to have any sort of conviction in what his future holds and whether or not he has any fantasy WR1 upside left in the tank.

On a young, rebuilding team, I would prefer two second-round picks or unproven wideouts such as Xavier Legette over Adams.

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs

Injuries are always horrible no matter who is involved, but seeing Isiah Pacheco go down with a fractured fibula in Week 2 was one of the most disheartening moments of the season. Pacheco was primed to dominate this year, and Kareem Hunt’s success in his absence only proves that.

Despite Hunt’s production, in just his first week back from injury, Pacheco showed that he can’t be so easily replaced.

Pacheco is an explosive athlete with plenty of value in dynasty fantasy football. At age 25, he’s not too old to invest in on a win-now team. The problem is that he is highly unlikely to be a league-winner this year.

Excluding his 34-yard scamper in the clip above, Pacheco has averaged just 3.25 yards per carry since returning in Week 13. Of course, long breakaway runs are an important part of Pacheco’s game, and it was good to see him rip one off immediately. But it might take Pacheco some time to get back to 100%, and that’s not good news when you consider his schedule for the fantasy playoffs.

Kansas City will face the Browns and Texans before a meeting with the Steelers in Week 17. All three of these opponents rank bottom-10 in fantasy points allowed to the running back position. Only Cleveland surrenders more than 110 total rushing yards per contest.

Pacheco is not in a similar situation to Davante Adams and should still have a long career ahead of him. On a rebuilding team, though, holding running backs is always a risky proposition.

There is excitement for his return, so Pacheco should be worth a fair amount on the open market. In some leagues, you should be able to get a late first-round draft pick.

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