Each new week of NFL games gives us more information to make more informed decisions. This is crucial when figuring out who to add and who to cut. It can be difficult to admit we were wrong on a particular player. For example, using a high draft pick on someone and cutting them so early in the season can be demoralizing. However, the only thing worse than making a mistake is not being able to admit we made one in the first place.
Don’t be afraid to make bold decisions, but be careful not to be too reactionary. Bad weeks are going to happen. Sometimes, opportunity doesn’t always translate into box-score success. The flip side of that is true, too. Sometimes, the box score can look amazing despite poor utilization. This article will help you determine who to send packing and how to value players whose value is falling.
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Easy Cuts
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans – 87.0% Rostered
Stroud was a tough cut last week, but with a matchup against the Jaguars, who have allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, I was willing to give Stroud one more shot. Despite getting Nico Collins back fully healthy, Stroud could still not even muster 15 points. He’s only scored over 15 points (15.68) in one of his last seven games. He is now QB26 in PPG for the season.
Houston is on bye in Week 14 and then returns to action after with matchups against Miami, Kansas City, and Baltimore. The Ravens and Chiefs have allowed the fourth- and 11th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, respectively, which, in theory, should make Stroud a solid start. But he’s failed to produce despite three mouthwatering matchups in the last three weeks.
The Cowboys, Titans, and Jaguars, their last three opponents, have allowed the fifth, ninth, and most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, respectively. Despite three straight top-10 matchups, Stroud scored under 15 points in two and averaged just 13.65 PPG. There’s no way you can trust him.
Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons – 64.0% Rostered
Could Cousins get benched? It seems hard to believe, but he’s been atrocious the past three weeks. He’s averaged just 5.75 PPG in the last three weeks, which is not a typo. He has not scored more than 5.0 points in the past two weeks. He has five games with fewer than 10 points. He only has four games this season with more than 12 points.
He has scored 63 of his 160.1 points in two games. That amounts to roughly 39.4% of his overall points. Outside of those two games, both against Tampa Bay, Cousins has averaged just 9.7 PPG. He has a fantastic four-game stretch to close the year against the Vikings, Raiders, Giants, and Commanders. There’s just no way fantasy managers can trust him at this point.
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins – 48.5% Rostered
Mostert has averaged just 2.3 half-PPR PPG over his last four weeks. From Weeks 7-9, Mostert averaged 11 touches per game, but during the previous four weeks, he’s had just 3.75 touches per game. He’s been completely irrelevant on a week-to-week basis. That leaves him strictly as a handcuff to De’Von Achane. However, before last week, it seemed as though Jaylen Wright had leapfrogged Mostert on the depth chart.
While Mostert’s value would increase if Achane were to miss time, if fantasy managers wanted to bet on Mostert or Wright being more fantasy-relevant, they’d be wise to roll the dice on Wright. He’s younger and way more explosive. While Miami is still in the playoff hunt, if it were to lose Achane for any period, it may decide it’d be more beneficial to give Wright some real game experience.
Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants – 49.4% Rostered
Robinson hasn’t been bad. He’s scored between 7-12 points in eight out of 12 games. If you’re in a 14-team league, Robinson is probably worth holding onto as a desperation flex play, but he can be safely cut in 10- and 12-team leagues. There’s just no upside with Robinson.
He hasn’t scored over 13.0 half-PPR points in any games this season. The team is starting Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock at quarterback, neither of which presents any confidence for fantasy managers. Receivers like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine might not have the same floor as Robinson seems to have, but their ceiling is much higher.
Robinson is unlikely to be the reason you win or lose a fantasy matchup. With that being the case, cut him, and find someone to help flip a week.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons – 86.0% Rostered
Since Kirk Cousins’ play has fallen off a cliff, so has Pitts’. Since Week 9, he’s averaging 18.8 yards per game on 2.75 targets. Fantasy managers can’t even hang their hat on elite efficiency. Since then, he has had a 12.0% target share, averaging a pathetic 0.82 yards per route run.
Pitts is averaging just 3.5 half-PPR PPG over his last four games. He has just one game with more than 2.0 half-PPR points during that time. He is now TE18 on the season with a 7.08 half-PPR PPG, slotting between Cole Kmet and Pat Freiermuth. Pitts is just fifth in targets on the Falcons. He’s a complete afterthought on his team, a sign he doesn’t need a spot on your team.
Tough Cuts
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks – 53.3% Rostered
Smith struggled coming out of the team’s bye in Week 13. However, it should be noted that DK Metcalf is just returning from an injury and may not be 100%. Regardless, Smith has averaged just 13.5 PPG over the last three weeks. He’s been held under 13 points over the previous two weeks. He has just two games with more than one touchdown pass and has just two games with more than 18 points.
There are plenty of reasons that Smith is cut, but he is second in the league in pass attempts per game and third in passing yards per game. The volume is there. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is playing some of the best ball of his career. Despite being second and third in pass attempts and yards per game, respectively, he’s just 27th in touchdowns per game.
If Smith experiences some positive touchdown regression, something based on the numbers we should somewhat expect, he could be someone you regret cutting.
J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers – 90.4% Rostered
Dobbins is currently on IR. He’s not eligible to return until Week 17. That doesn’t mean he will return in Week 17, however. It certainly doesn’t mean he’ll have a regular workload even if he can return. He could very well be on a snap count. That puts fantasy managers in a tough spot.
The Chargers play the Patriots in Week 17. The Patriots have allowed the 12th-most half-PPR points to opposing running backs this season. That’s a good reason to hold onto him, making him such a tough cut. Given his favorable matchup in Week 17, hanging onto him is reasonable.
However, given the circumstances and the fact that he’s unlikely to have a full workload if he’s even able to make a comeback in Week 17, it would be reasonable for fantasy managers to cut ties.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles – 79.5% Rostered
Goedert injured his knee in the Week 13 win over Baltimore. His timeline presents fantasy managers with a conundrum similar to the one they face with Dobbins. Will he return in time for the fantasy playoffs? Can we trust him if he does?
Dallas Goedert (knee) likely considered week-to-week; could be placed on short-term IR, per @Jeff_McLane.
— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) December 2, 2024
Goedert is deemed „week-t0-week.” He’s likely out until Week 16 or Week 17 at the earliest. The team is still considering putting him on short-term IR, which would keep him out until Week 18. If possible, assume he’ll likely miss at least 2-3 weeks. That puts fantasy managers in a tough spot.
Goedert has been a top-10 tight end this year, slotting in at TE10 with an 8.34 half-PPR PPG. That’s the reason to keep him. However, with his injury status and just how little Philadelphia is passing the ball, fantasy managers may be forced to make a difficult decision.
Hot Seat
Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs – 91.4% Rostered
Hunt played more snaps than Isiah Pacheco in his first game back. He also ran more routes, but Pacheco had the same number of carries. Pacheco also outproduced Hunt on the ground.
While Hunt has been a quality fantasy producer in Pacheco’s absence, he hasn’t exactly been efficient. He’s averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and just 1.7 yards after contact per carry. He’s getting only what the offensive line provides and very little else.
As Pacheco gets healthier and healthier, Hunt’s role will get less and less. His days of being a borderline set-it-and-forget-it starter are gone. He’s now best viewed as an RB3, but that may not last long. Before you know it, Hunt may be nothing more than a handcuff. He’s worth holding onto for 1-2 more weeks, but his time may be coming.
Hold
Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers – 97.2% Rostered
Tank Dell, Houston Texans – 88.2% Rostered
Amari Cooper, Buffalo Bills – 84.2% Rostered
Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears – 61.2% Rostered
Unless you’re in an 8- or 10-team league, these guys should be kept. I get it; they’re incredibly frustrating right now. However, it wasn’t that long ago that Keenan Allen made the Cut List, and that looks like a brutal call in hindsight. There was an argument to cut Allen, like there’s an argument to cut any of these four players. That same argument could have been made for DJ Moore and Jaylen Waddle not too long ago. If you cut any of these three players, you’re probably regretting it now.
Samuel, Dell, Cooper, and Odunze are good to great football players. When healthy, they’re all full-time players. They’ve struggled, all of them, mightily. Some of that can be explained by their quarterback missing games or not being 100% (Samuel). Maybe it can be explained by a significant 2023 injury and a disastrous offseason (Dell). Or perhaps they were traded to a new team at the trade deadline and have been dinged up (Cooper). Maybe it’s because their offensive coordinator got fired, and they, along with their quarterback, are rookies (Odunze).
Some of them may not break out of the funk, but I’ll be willing to bet that 2-3 of them do. At the end of the day, however, we’re talking about four good to great football players. All four are full-time players. All four have good to great quarterbacks. Josh Allen has been excellent. Caleb Williams is finally playing up to expectations. Brock Purdy has been good. While C.J. Stroud has struggled this season, we’ve all seen his capabilities.
The reality is, if you’re in a 12-team league, you’re unlikely to find a player on the waiver wire who is as talented as these guys, who is playing as many snaps and running as many routes as these guys, or who has a quarterback as talented as the ones throwing these guys the ball. For that reason, I’m holding onto all four of them.
The Parameters
There are a few different categories here. Anyone listed under the “Insert Position to Cut for Insert Week” can be safely cut. Seems pretty self-explanatory, correct? No surprise there. We’ll focus on players with rostered percentages higher than 40% to keep this a little more straightforward. Otherwise, we could name many players for every position every week.
The following two categories are “Uh-Oh…” and “On the Hot Seat.” If a player is listed under “Uh-Oh…” that doesn’t mean they’re a cut … yet. It just means their value is falling. That could be due to several reasons. Maybe it’s due to repeated inefficiency. Perhaps it’s due to a change in role and utilization. Whatever the reason, these players are not as valuable today as they were before last week’s games.
The other category is “On the Hot Seat.” This one is also pretty self-explanatory. These players do not need to be cut, although if you’re on the hot seat, there’s certainly an argument to be made that they could be cut if you’re in a tough roster predicament.
These players should be given one final shot to make your roster. Especially early in the season, we don’t want to overreact to a change in utilization or a bad week or two, but we also don’t want to ignore it. Players in this section are a bad week away from being on the cut list.
One of the final categories we’ll sometimes touch on is „Hold On.” These players may have had some bad weeks, but their utilization is good, indicating better days are ahead. Hold onto them. On occasion, we’ll also identify sell-high and sell-low players. A sell-high player is one whose production has spiked, but maybe their role creates questions about whether the production is sustainable.
These players have increased their value recently, so it makes sense to see if you can trade them at peak value. Players who are sell-lows are often players with a lot of name value. These players are best explained as “get some value for them while you still can before their value falls to nothing.”
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