It’s officially trade season in the NFL, with multiple Pro Bowl wideouts getting shipped to new destinations this week. The trade deadline is rapidly approaching, forcing teams to evaluate their current rosters and pinpoint areas of need. Fantasy managers should do the same thing this time of the year.
To recap last week, I suggested trading for Rome Odunze and Bijan Robinson. Although Chicago dropped 35 points on the Jaguars, Odunze was quiet in London while teammate Keenan Allen stole the show. I was incorrect in thinking Odunze would be a solid start in Week 6, but I did mention that he was more of a long-term play than an every-week lock. Robinson, on the other hand, did not let me down. He delivered the second multi-touchdown game of his career and his first of the season. If the door to acquire Robinson was open, it likely just slammed shut. I labeled Rico Dowdle and Christian Kirk as sell-high candidates, and that appears to have been the right call one week later. Dowdle was surprisingly out-snapped by Ezekiel Elliott and Kirk had his job taken by a healthy Evan Engram.
Let’s stay ahead of the curve and make some bold moves for Week 7. Without further ado, here are two players to spend up for and two others to cash in on.
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De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
Anyone who took the risk of selecting De’Von Achane in the second round of fantasy drafts thought they got away with theft to begin the season. Achane was not only the clear RB1 in Miami but also the Dolphins WR2.
No disrespect to Jaylen Waddle, of course, but Achane amassed 14 targets through the first two weeks. This was more pass-catching volume than Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Marvin Harrison Jr. saw in that span.
Better yet, Achane came down with all 14 targets, trailing only Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Malik Nabers, and Brock Bowers in receptions. At this point, the only thing that could stop Achane from finishing as a top-5 running back was injury. At 5-foot-9 and 188 pounds, this has always been a concern for the 23-year-old.
It wasn’t an injury to Achane that derailed his breakout, however. Since Tua Tagovailoa went down in Week 2 with the third concussion of his NFL career, the Dolphins offense has been a disaster. They scored just over eight points per game and averaged 253.7 total yards of offense from Weeks 3-5.
Achane, Waddle, and Tyreek Hill have all been extremely disappointing for fantasy with Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle, and Tyler Huntley under center. Fortunately, better days are ahead.
„Tua Tagovailoa does expect to play again this season. … He’s consulted with doctors and he believes he is okay to continue an NFL career that many people were calling for him to walk away from.”
—@AdamSchefter on Tua Tagovailoa’s potential return to gameplay pic.twitter.com/oDS2hmqhHE
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) October 14, 2024
Tagovailoa is not going to return in Week 7, which probably means your league mates are still a bit scared to start Achane. Achane himself suffered a concussion in Week 5 but had a bye last week and should at least have a chance to play on Sunday. If active, he’ll get to take on the Indianapolis Colts, who surrender the second-most rushing yards in the league.
In the two full games Achane played without Tagovailoa this season, he scored as the RB36 and RB49 in half-PPR formats. He faced the Seahawks and Titans, respectively. Tennessee has an elite run defense and while Achane left much to be desired against Seattle, this was Thompson’s first and only start of the campaign before suffering a rib injury.
Huntley is by no means a good NFL quarterback, but the Dolphins showed signs of life in their Week 5 win over the Patriots. Again, Achane exited early in this one, but there are reasons to be optimistic about this team moving forward.
Miami also now has Raheem Mostert back and looking healthy. The 10th-year veteran rushed for 80 yards against New England after missing Weeks 2-5. While Mostert’s return means Achane won’t get every RB opportunity, it should help keep him fresh and efficient, much like what we saw last year. The duo should have no trouble finding success given their upcoming schedule.
No backfield in football has an easier schedule over the next six weeks. After the Colts, Achane and the Dolphins will take on the Cardinals, Bills, Rams, Raiders, and Patriots, all of whom rank in the top 10 of most fantasy points per game allowed to the running back position. Assuming Tagovailoa makes his way back at some point during that stretch, Achane should be poised to dominate.
I don’t mean to call D’Andre Swift a sell-high, but if I could flip Swift’s three massive showings against bad defenses into Achane, I’d do it immediately. I think other players performing as high-end RB2s could potentially get a deal done, too.
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks got off to a hot 3-0 start and have since lost three straight games. What do all three losses have in common? DK Metcalf didn’t find the end zone or finish the week as a top-24 wide receiver.
Those are mostly irrelevant coincidences, but obviously, Seattle is a better team when Metcalf is playing at a high level. It can be argued that Metcalf was a toe and an illegal shift penalty away from getting the Seahawks a W and finishing as the WR2 in Week 6.
DK Metcalf in Week 6:
-52-yard TD was nullified on an illegal shift penalty
-Toe was out of bounds on a potential 2-yard TD before halftime
-Arguable better ball away from a 49-yard TD earlier on that same drive pic.twitter.com/929u3ZZWoa— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 14, 2024
Instead, Metcalf caught just three of his 11 targets for 48 yards. Not the catch percentage we’re looking for, but that target volume will do. Metcalf is earning nine targets per contest this season, more than he’s averaged in any campaign of his six-year career. And this doesn’t seem to be a fluke, either. New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb has Geno Smith airing it out like never before.
For years, the Seahawks were known for their run-heavy offense under former head coach Pete Carroll. This is a new era of Seattle football that has Smith throwing the ball over 40 times per game, more than any other quarterback in the league. The team is also running the third-most plays and scoring the 13th-most points.
It may not look like it when you check the final scores but the Seahawks have been competitive in every game they’ve played. In each of their three losses, Seattle had the deficit down to one possession in the fourth quarter.
All of this is to say that Grubb’s system has been effective, and Metcalf is probably the biggest beneficiary of this new offense. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is enjoying a nice season, Tyler Lockett is still productive, and Kenneth Walker III has been excellent when healthy, but Metcalf is both Smith’s go-to guy and favorite vertical threat. The 26-year-old ranks seventh in the NFL in air yards and deep targets.
In Week 7, Metcalf will be motivated to bounce back against the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta has been a middle-of-the-pack pass defense this year that DeVonta Smith, Rashee Rice, Mike Evans, and Diontae Johnson have all exploited for big showings.
His schedule for the rest of the season isn’t necessarily good or bad, but it doesn’t matter for a player like Metcalf. He’s a must-start in every matchup because, as we’ve already seen multiple times this year, he can turn a quiet outing into a week-winning performance in one play.
It’s difficult to call Metcalf a true buy-low candidate, even after two consecutive bad games. But based on what we’ve seen thus far, it’s hard to imagine him ending the season outside of the top 15 fantasy receivers, and his ceiling is a lot closer to the top five than many would admit.
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I recommended trading away Rachaad White after a solid Week 1 because of his schedule in the following weeks and the presence of rookie running back Bucky Irving. If you capitalized on White’s name value, it turned out to be the right decision. He has yet to find the end zone or finish as a top-12 option this season.
White was inactive in Week 6 due to a foot injury. Irving, who already had a sizable role in Tampa Bay’s offense, handled 16 touches, scored a touchdown, and tallied over 100 yards this past Sunday against the Saints. Somehow, he wasn’t the best fantasy back on his team.
Second-year pro Sean Tucker exploded for 192 yards from scrimmage and two scores, finishing as the RB1 on the week. Tucker hardly saw the field as a rookie and had three offensive opportunities in 2024 before this breakout.
Much of Tucker’s work came late in the game, which ended as a blowout victory, so we can and should put to rest any thought of him running away with the starting gig. He could complicate things for White and Irving, though.
#Bucs HC Todd Bowles on whether Sean Tucker’s performance has now turned the backfield into a three-headed monster:
“It’s definitely worthy of him making it a three-headed monster. He took advantage of his opportunities… He made some great plays, he caught the ball well out of… pic.twitter.com/lBfwteWMbn
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 14, 2024
At this point, Irving should be viewed as the Buccaneers’ most valuable running back for fantasy, and I’m not here to argue that. He’s been more efficient on the ground than White, who could be out a few more weeks. Whether it’s a three-headed monster or a two-man committee, I’d rather not start Irving over the next three weeks, at least.
On Monday night, the Buccaneers will face the Ravens, who have been the third-most difficult matchup for fantasy running backs this season. Not a single running back has surpassed 50 rushing yards against Baltimore yet. This contest has a shootout written all over it as both teams bleed passing yards while limiting the run. Maybe Irving falls into the end zone, but he likely underwhelms for fantasy otherwise.
In Week 8, he’ll see a familiar foe in the Atlanta Falcons. Just two weeks ago, we were treated to a thrilling showdown between these division rivals, but it wasn’t a great game for Irving’s fantasy managers. He was outshined by White and lost a fumble on a crucial drive in the fourth quarter. Atlanta has also been stout against the run this year and has only allowed one touchdown to an opposing back.
Irving will then round out a three-week gauntlet in Kansas City against the Chiefs. Like the Ravens, the Chiefs are yet to allow a running back to eclipse 50 rushing yards. They held Bijan Robinson to 1.9 yards per carry, J.K. Dobbins to 2.3, and Alvin Kamara to 2.4. Kansas City is the stingiest defense against fantasy backs through the first six weeks.
Week 10’s duel with the 49ers doesn’t appear to be quite as challenging when you look at fantasy points allowed, but San Francisco is still great against the run, giving up the seventh-fewest total rushing yards per contest. If you have adequate running back depth, look to trade Irving before this stretch and avoid the headache-inducing start/sit decisions that will come with it.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
Drafted routinely as a top-5 tight end, Dalton Kincaid has not quite lived up to the hype this season. So while I can’t consider this a sell-high in the traditional sense, Kincaid is coming off one of his better outings of the year and is still sure to pique the interest of fantasy gamers.
The tight-end position is as volatile as it’s ever been. There are maybe five players who you can feel confident in as every-week starters, and only one is separating himself as a difference-maker. That would be George Kittle, who is scoring 14.5 fantasy points per game.
On average, the gap between Kittle and Brock Bowers, currently the TE2, is larger than the gap between Bowers and Taysom Hill at TE10 in points per game.
Where does Kincaid fit in all this? He’s the actual TE10 in total points scored, putting him in the same range as players such as Pat Freiermuth, Hunter Henry, and Zach Ertz. These are tight ends who have a role and are guaranteed to see a few looks each week, but rarely make a significant impact in your starting lineup.
We analyzed the gap between Kittle and Bowers, so let’s do an even more disgusting comparison using Kincaid to demonstrate how far away he is from being an elite asset. Trey McBride, the TE4 in points per game, is averaging 9.4 fantasy points, exactly three points more than Kincaid at 6.4. That’s a bigger gap than the one between Kincaid and Browns tight end Jordan Akins, who posts 3.6 points per game.
My overarching point here is that the vast majority of tight ends are not separating themselves from guys you can pick up off the waiver wire. And now Kincaid, who leads the Bills in looks from Josh Allen, may no longer be the top target earner on his team.
BREAKING: #Browns trading WR Amari Cooper to #Bills, sources tell @NFLonFOX. pic.twitter.com/UAKGTJIriX
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) October 15, 2024
Amari Cooper amassed 53 targets in Cleveland, good for 8.8 per contest, through six weeks. Over half of them were uncatchable. Although he did drop a few catchable balls, Cooper is still getting open at a high level and was undoubtedly held back by terrible quarterback play.
Cooper should immediately emerge as the top wideout in Buffalo, which is bad news for fantasy managers of any of the team’s pass-catchers.
I don’t know if it gets done after his resurgence in Week 6 but I’d love to trade Kincaid for Evan Engram. If that doesn’t work out, don’t be scared to tier down to players like Cole Kmet, David Njoku, or dare I say Mark Andrews for an additional asset in return.
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