Each new week of NFL games gives us more information to make better, more informed decisions. That’s crucial when figuring out who to add and who to cut. It can be difficult to admit we were wrong on a particular player. For example, using a high draft pick on someone and cutting them so early in the season can be demoralizing. However, the only thing worse than making a mistake is not being able to admit we made one in the first place.
Don’t be afraid to make bold decisions, but be careful not to be too reactionary. Bad weeks are going to happen. Sometimes, opportunity doesn’t always translate into box-score success. The flip side of that is true, too. Sometimes, the box score can look amazing despite poor utilization. This article will help you determine who to send packing and how to value players whose value is falling.
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The Parameters
There are a few different categories here. Anyone listed under the “Insert Position to Cut for Insert Week” can be safely cut. Seems pretty self-explanatory, correct? No surprise there. We’ll focus on players with rostered percentages higher than 40% to keep this a little more straightforward. Otherwise, we could name many players for every position every week.
The following two categories are “Uh-Oh…” and “On the Hot Seat.” If a player is listed under “Uh-Oh…,” that doesn’t mean they’re a cut … yet. It just means their value is falling. That could be due to several reasons. Maybe it’s due to repeated inefficiency. Perhaps it’s due to a change in role and utilization. Whatever the reason, these players are not as valuable today as they were before last week’s games.
The other category is “On the Hot Seat.” This one is also pretty self-explanatory. These players do not need to be cut, although if you’re on the hot seat, there’s certainly an argument to be made that they could be cut if you’re in a tough roster predicament. These players should be given one final shot to make your roster. Especially early in the season, we don’t want to overreact to a change in utilization or a bad week or two, but we also don’t want to ignore it. Players in this section are a bad week away from being on the cut list.
One of the final categories we’ll sometimes touch on is „Hold On.” These players may have had some bad weeks, but their utilization is good, indicating better days are ahead. Hold onto them.
On occasion, we’ll also identify sell-high and sell-low players. A sell-high player is one whose production has spiked, but maybe their role creates questions about whether the production is sustainable. These players have increased their value recently, so it makes sense to see if you can trade them at peak value. Players who are sell-lows are often players with a lot of name value. These players are best explained as “get some value for them while you still can before their value falls to nothing.”
Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets – 63.1% Rostered
He’s QB22 on the season. He’s averaging fewer points than Bo Nix. He’s scored more than 12 points just twice. He has just one game in which he’s completed more than 62% of his passes. His completion percentage has been below 60% in the past two weeks.
This offense is bland. There’s no motion. There’s no tempo. It’s boring. The system does nothing to make things easier on anyone, Rodgers included. However, this is the kind of offense he likes, but because of that, it isn’t easy to see anything changing.
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints – 34.3% Rostered
When the season is done, the biggest Scooby-Doo moment of the 2024 season will have been Carr in the first two weeks of the season and the remaining 15 games. He scored over 21 points in Weeks 1 and 2. However, in Week 2, he did score a rushing touchdown, which inflated his score and is not something fantasy managers should expect moving forward from Carr. In Week 3 and 4, he didn’t even score nine. The first two weeks were a complete mirage of Carr and this Saints team.
He hasn’t thrown for 250 yards in a game this season and has an interception in the last four games. He can safely be dropped to the waiver wire.
Other Players to Cut: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers – 41.8% Rostered, Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns – 26.7% Rostered
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders – 61.2% Rostered
He missed last week with a groin injury and seemingly lost his starting job to Alexander Mattison. The demotion wasn’t without merit. White has been atrocious through the first four weeks of the season. He has yet to score 5.5 half-PPR points in any game this season.
The Raiders offense is bad, and trading Davante Adams could make it worse. They’re also constantly changing their quarterback. Cutting White is an easy decision.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers – 51.1% Rostered
He missed Weeks 4 and 5 due to a knee sprain. It’s possible he could return in Week 6, but there’s little to get excited about. This Pittsburgh offense has been dreadful through five games this season. It is averaging just 18.4 PPG and under 300 scrimmage yards per game.
With Justin Fields under center, the Steelers running backs have only generated 29 targets through five games. Last year, Warren had 74 targets, which was a big component of his fantasy value. With Fields at quarterback, these running back targets have dried up.
With his injury concerns, the offensive limitations, and Fields’ negative impact on the target share for the running backs, Warren seems to have a very limited ceiling.
Other Players to Cut: Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys – 53.2% Rostered, Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers – 39.4% Rostered, Carson Steele, Kansas City Chiefs – 26.0% Rostered
Keenan Allen, Chicago Bears – 77.4% Rostered
Caleb Williams balled out this past weekend, but that meant nothing for Allen. Allen seems to have almost shifted into the Jaxon Smith-Njigba role of Shane Waldron’s offense last year in Seattle.
In the past two weeks, Allen has seen nine targets, and he’s caught six for only 52 yards. Allen has never really been a downfield target, but this year is far worse than ever. He’s averaging just 8.1 yards per reception (previous career low was 9.9), and his average depth of target is just 6.2 (previous career low was 7.2).
In his current role, Allen needs a ton of sheer volume to overcome his clear yardage ceiling. He has not yet scored 5.0 half-PPR points in any of the three games he’s been active.
Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers – 73.7% Rostered
It’s hard to cut a player who had 41.0 and 10.3 half-PPR points in Weeks 3 and 4, but with Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel Sr., and George Kittle all healthy, Jennings has reverted to being the No. 4 option in the San Francisco passing attack.
This past weekend, with all three of them healthy and even Samuel having a characteristically bad game, Jennings had just four targets, one reception, 13 yards, and 1.8 half-PPR points. He was a great streamer with Deebo out, but now that they’re all back, fantasy managers can move on.
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans – 53.6% Rostered
When it comes to tight ends, anyone with a pulse is startable. For Schultz, he happens to play on a high-scoring offense with an outstanding quarterback, so things could be worse. It could also help Schultz if Nico Collins is out this week.
However, fantasy managers should still have little interest in continuing to roster Schultz. He’s behind Collins and Stefon Diggs weekly and still has to compete with Tank Dell. Due to this, Schultz has been held below 5.0 half-PPR points in four out of five games.
He set a season-high with 5.4 this past weekend, and all it took was Collins sitting out most of the game. It’s ugly out there at tight end — I know it is! However, I’d rather start Tyler Conklin or Cade Otton. Realistically, based on his ADP, Schultz is probably being rostered as a TE2 for most teams. If that’s the case, cut him.
Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals – 28.2% Rostered
That Week 2 game against Kansas City, when he had nine targets, seven receptions, 91 yards, and 12.6 half-PPR points, feels like a lifetime ago. Since then, Gesicki has had eight combined targets, seven receptions, and 69 yards in the past three weeks.
The past two weeks have been even worse. In Weeks 4 and 5, he has three targets, three receptions, and 22 yards. Cincinnati uses a tight-end-by-committee, limiting Gesicki’s playing time and routes.
This offense flows through Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. They had a 66.7% target share last week. That leaves nothing but scraps for the remaining players. He’s a touchdown-or-bust tight end, but there are other options on the waiver wire running more routes and playing more snaps.
Uh-Oh…
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs – 98.5% Rostered
This was written before the Monday night game, but before that game was played, Mahomes sat at QB20 with a 14.4 PPG average. He has yet to score 17 fantasy points in a game. Derek Carr, Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, and Justin Fields are averaging more PPG than Mahomes.
To make matters worse, three of those four games in Mahomes’ sample included Rashee Rice. He’s out potentially for the rest of the year. Marquise Brown is also on IR. This isn’t a new trend, either. Mahomes was QB14 last year with just a 17.5 PPG, just narrowly edging out Russell Wilson at 17.1 PPG. Mahomes hasn’t been an elite fantasy quarterback since 2022. That was the last time he was a set-it-and-forget-it starter.
He was still treated as such in 2023 because of what he had done the year before, but that’s not the case this season. The offense is without Rice, Brown, and Isiah Pacheco. Travis Kelce has lost a step (or two), and Xavier Worthy doesn’t appear ready to carry out an offense.
Mahomes shouldn’t be viewed as a top-12 quarterback. He’s a QB2 until further notice and not a weekly starter. It seems wild to say that, but the numbers are the numbers.
Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars – 98.1% Rostered
Tank Bigsby is averaging 8.0 yards per carry. Etienne is at 4.4. Bigsby is averaging 5.8 yards before contact per attempt. Etienne is at 2.7. Bigsby is averaging 2.2 yards after contact per attempt. Etienne is at 1.7. Simply put, Bigsby has been, by far, the better runner for Jacksonville.
Making matters worse for Etienne is that he’s dealing with a shoulder injury. Bigsby played more snaps than Etienne this past week. This backfield is shaping up to be a full-blown, 50/50 committee. It seems plausible that Bigsby could become the primary runner at this time.
If that happens, Etienne’s value would take a huge hit. Etienne is the preferred and better pass-catcher, but if Bigsby becomes the early down back and, more importantly, the goal-line back, Etienne could become nothing more than a flex starter. His value is falling fast.
Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals – 86.1% Rostered
Moss averages 3.7 yards per carry, while Chase Brown is at 5.6. Brown’s rushing success rate is 61.0% compared to Moss’s at 41.1%. Brown is averaging more yards before contact per attempt (3.7 to 2.6) and more yards after contact per attempt (1.9 to 1.1). He’s also breaking tackles at a higher rate.
Moss has seen his rush share decrease every week of the season. He’s still the team’s preferred pass-catching back because of his ability to pass-block, but Brown is being used increasingly. Even worse for Moss’s fantasy value is that Brown has been used near the goal line in the past two weeks. That’s a significant hit to Moss’s fantasy value.
He’s also now dealing with a potential high ankle sprain. If he misses time, the job he comes back to may look different than what it was. He was an RB2, but he can’t be trusted as anything more than a flex play right now.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers – 93.0% Rostered
Who knows what the Steelers are doing on offense, but Pickens played on just 34 of the team’s 57 plays. That’s just a 59.6% snap share. He ran 20 routes on 30 dropbacks. Those are downright scary numbers.
Through five weeks, Pickens’ route share is at just 81%. That’s incredibly low for a team’s No. 1 receiver. Pittsburgh isn’t passing the ball effectively or with much volume, so being a fantasy-relevant receiver is even more challenging. Still, it becomes borderline impossible when you start to lose out on as many routes as Pickens is.
It’s unknown if his decreased snap share and route participation rate was some punishment, but if this is his utilization going forward, he’ll be nothing more than a boom-or-bust WR4 at best.
Hold On
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars – 79.2% Rostered
In Brenton Strange’s last four games, he has scored 8.0 or more half-PPR points in three out of four. During Engram’s absence, he’s averaging 7.5 half-PPR PPG over his previous four starts. That would be good for TE10.
Engram is far better than Strange on a talent basis, so if Strange can do that, fantasy managers should be excited about what Engram can do. Trevor Lawrence has played better in the past two weeks, and that’ll help the fantasy value for all Jacksonville pass-catchers.
Engram should be valued as a top-12 tight end for the rest of the season, and he’s expected to be back in Week 6. If you held him this long, keep holding. If he’s on the waiver wire for some reason, add him.
Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns – 90.1% Rostered and Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns – 61.6% Rostered
Cooper’s utilization has been fantastic, but the results have not. Some of that is on Cooper (he’s had a few bad drops), some of it is bad luck (he had an 80+ yard TD called back from a weak holding penalty), but a lot of it has been due to bad, downright terrible quarterback play.
Cooper is third in targets (47), 11th in target share (27.5%), fourth in air yards (470), ninth in air yard share (43.8%), and first in unrealized air yards (344). That all screams “better days ahead.” His catchable target rate is just 48.6%.
Cooper, if there is a quarterback change, could be a significant second-half contributor. Fantasy managers need a quarterback change. It’s got to come sooner or later. They cannot keep putting Deshaun Watson out there with the kind of results he’s giving back. We’re holding until that happens.
Sell High
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks – 86.8% Rostered
Smith-Njigba was a breakout candidate going into 2024, but outside of one game, his 2024 stat line looks very similar to 2023. His yards per reception average in 2023 was 10.0. It’s 8.9 this year. His yards per target last year was 6.8 compared to 6.4 this year. His average target depth this season is 7.1 compared to 6.1 last year. Maybe this is just who JSN is.
He’s on pace for 99 receptions and 873 yards. In any PPR scoring league, that’ll be an okay WR3, but some fantasy managers might still value him as a potential WR2. He scored a touchdown this week and still only mustered 11.1 half-PPR points. He’s only scored double-digits twice this season. Outside of Week 2, when he had 117 yards, he’s only gone over 40 yards once. That was in Week 4 when he had 51 yards.
If fantasy managers can sell JSN off his WR2 potential and target volume (he’s on pace for 136 targets), I would take advantage of that. His 2024 role doesn’t look all that different from his rookie season, and the production is pretty much the same.
Sell Low
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – 81.7% Rostered
Before Week 5, Andrews was not even sellable. However, with how brutal the tight-end position has been, this past weekend may have given fantasy managers a window. He had five targets, four receptions, and 55 yards. He scored 7.5 half-PPR points.
That’s hardly a big game, but at tight end this season, that’s enough to be a top-12 player for the week. If someone still believes in Andrews and overvalues his name value and Week 5 performance, I’d sell. This won’t be selling high, though. One game won’t be enough to change the concerning narrative from the first four weeks. You won’t get back a pretty return, but this may be your last chance to get whatever you can get.
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