It’s bittersweet but the final Major Championship of the 2024 season is upon us and Royal Troon is set to play the host role for 10th time in Open Championship history. The tournament was last held at this venue in 2016 and resulted in an epic 36-hole duel between two titans in the professional game at the time, Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson. In terms of course specifics, it does not favor any one style, and we’ve seen an eclectic group of players have success around Royal Troon in the past. You’ll need a heavy dose of skill and a little bit of luck on your side if you want to hoist the Claret Jug.
Anytime we talk about the Open Championship, you must factor in the added potential of a massive weather draw bias. In 2016, a Friday afternoon when the wind and rain ratcheting way up ended up wiping out half the field. There is always that potential at The Open, so before making any final decisions for your DFS lineups, make sure to stay up to date on the latest weather forecast with an understanding that it can change quickly.
As always with this article, my primary goal is to provide a place to start your research and preparation for the incoming week. I have carefully evaluated the field-to-project course fits and past results in team golf formats. This will give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping this unique event. Here are my top 10 players to watch out for and a brief write-up of my reasons why I think they will crush it this week in Scotland.
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No. 10 – Viktor Hovland
He finally got the train headed in the correct direction about two months ago and it would appear that Viktor Hovland has all the momentum in place to save his 2024 season. He enters this week on the heels of a decent performance at the Scottish Open, but his backers are hoping for a performance like the one we saw at Valhalla for the PGA Championship to get Hovland going. Yes, Joe Mayo was able to accomplish some modest improvement in his short game, but it was really his iron play that Mayo immediately fixed.
Hovland has gained +2 strokes on approach or better in five of his last six starts heading into The Open Championship. He went home to Norway after the Travelers and has spent the past three weeks preparing on links-style golf courses. He’s taking a liking to the Open Championship style golf early in career. His last three appearances at The Open include a T12, T4, and a T13 last season at Hoylake. If he can pair his elite driving ability with another good week ballstriking, then Hovland is set up nicely to compete for another victory.
No. 9 – Brooks Koepka
He’s floating down the oddsboard like an empty inner tube through heavy rapids, but you had to know that I wasn’t going to be the one to write off Brooks Koepka’s chances to win his sixth Major Championship Trophy. That said, besides the season where he dealt with a season knee injury, 2024 has been one of his worst in the Major Championships. It’s also been somewhat perplexing that he has not been able to bring his A-game to The Open, struggling throughout his career at this Major much more than the rest.
The thing is, Koepka adores links golf. He came up via the Challenge Tour, earning his stripes by battling the conditions, weather, and wind. He’s on record the St. Andrews is his favorite course in the world. A recent change back to the putter that he used to win 5 Majors is a welcome sight for those who want to believe in his chances of getting a sixth. Remember that opening nine holes at Pinehurst? The game is still there, and this is the final chance to showcase it on the biggest of stages. He’s an intriguing character that was always built for these moments.
Lynch: After Brooks Koepka declined interviews Thursday at Pinehurst, I suggested one via text. He accepted, and explained why he’s not talking https://t.co/8VZgyQ4Gwp pic.twitter.com/UAxUSJ4wRw
— Golfweek (@golfweek) June 13, 2024
No. 8 – Collin Morikawa
Checking in at the #8 spot in my Power Rankings is admittedly a player that I just cannot seem to get right. The 2021 Champion Golfer of the Year completely broke the mold when he fired a -15 under par score to win the The Open. Since then, he has missed both cuts in 2022 and 2023. I’m of course talking about Collin Morikawa who has seemingly fixed all the swing issues that plagued him earlier this season and is back to Ballstriking it an uber-elite level consistently.
One of the most important trends when looking to find The Open Champion is to look at players who have played very well in the first three Majors of the season. Morikawa certainly checks that box. He finished T3 at the Masters, T4 at the PGA Championship, and T14 at the US Open. He was in the final pairing twice. Everything seems to be headed in the correct direction and trending for a win, but I personally don’t trust the putter enough to rank him where he probably belongs, inside the Top-5.
No. 7 – Tyrrell Hatton
At the #7 spot, I’ve listed our second LIV Golf player and a member of the Legion 13 Team. However, it’s not the Captain. Instead, breaking into the rankings is his #2 man on the team and recent winner at LIV Nashville, the enigmatic Tyrrell Hatton. Hatton has been in great form lately and is trending positively heading into Royal Troon. He nearly made his way into a 3-way playoff at Valderrama and has simply been too good to ignore.
He posted his best performance to date at The Masters (T9) and also was right in contention heading into Sunday at the US Open before falling back due to an abysmal putting performance on Sunday at Pinehurst. What’s his best performance ever at a Major in his career? That would be the 2016 Open Championship where Hatton recorded a T5 result. The tournament was played at Royal Troon. Hatton’s in form and should be as confident as ever, now he just needs to stay out of his own way.
Tyrrell Hatton’s #LIVGolf win could propel him to Open Open Championship success next month at Royal Troon, writes @jack_milko: https://t.co/Z8QFUVAfhx
— Playing Through (@_PlayingThrough) June 24, 2024
No. 6 – Tommy Fleetwood
On a Sunday afternoon when the entire UK is hoping that „it’s coming home”, they’ll once again be able to root on one of the favorite native sons at Royal Troon, Tommy Fleetwood. When you look into the stats it would appear once again that Fleetwood is one of the most well-rounded players on the PGA Tour with very little that he doesn’t do exceptionally well. That said, winning matters. I’m certain he would train all those Top 10s for one lasting victory.
He was the fan favorite last season at Hoylake and will once again garner a ton of support off the coast of Troon, Scotland. Fleetwood understands the nuances and intricacies of links-golf. He’s finished inside the Top 10 in three of the last four years. He’s prepared, he’s in solid form, and he wants it desperately bad. There would be no better moment in the Scottish sun on the weekend than the sight of Tommy Fleetwood lifting the Claret Jug, something we can all root for regardless of our betting cards.
No. 5 – Bryson DeChambeau
After completing one of the most epic sand saves you will ever see on the 72nd hole of a Major, Bryson DeChambeau is ready tee it up once again and show the world that his game is built for any course, anywhere. DeChambeau finally seems secure with his personality and fully committed to his style of play. But will bombing it 330 yards and accepting that you may only hit 40% of the fairways work at an Open Championship?
Historically speaking, that answer would be no. He’s struggled to translate his methods at The Open. In six appearances, DeChambeau has only finished better than 33rd one time. I will say this, we had many of the same question marks about whether his style could hold up at courses like Augusta National and Pinehurst. He clearly proved everyone wrong. When he gets it right, he gets it REALLY right. It would surprise nobody is he’s on top of the leaderboard at some point again at Royal Troon.
No. 4 – Ludvig Aberg
What can’t this guy do? I’ve made the mistake a number of times this season of focusing too much on the course fit for Ludvig Aberg. It’s become abundantly clear that his talent is so imperically great that if he brings his A-game, Aberg can win on any course in the world. He was leading the Scottish Open through 54 holes before ultimately faltering, and he seemed to be quite frustrated on Sunday with the pace of play at the Renaissance Club which likely negatively impacted his result.
While he possesses zero history at The Open, he did spend the end of the 2023 year competing for three consecutive weeks on the DP World Tour. The results were phenomenal and exactly what you would expect. He recorded a T10 at Wentworth, 4th at the Czech Masters, and he won the Omega European Masters in his homeland of Switzerland. Aberg is that guy who has a free pass for having no Open Championship experience and he’s a deserving favorite to win the whole thing.
No. 3 – Xander Schauffele
Right behind the big-2 players on the odds board, you will find Aberg, DeChambeau, and Xander Schaffuele at right around the 14/15-1 mark on the outright odds. It’s my take that Schaffele is the most likely to succeed and win of the bunch. He quite literally has no weaknesses on the golf course. Previously doubted because of his inability to close when in contention, I believe that Schauffele put those concerns to rest when he aggressively closed the dead with a birdie on the final hole to win the PGA Championship just two months ago.
Like DeChambeau, Schaffuele has also competed in the last six Open Championships, but the results are very different. In five of his six appearances, Schaffuele has finished T26 or better. Americans have had a great track record at Royal Troon, winning six of the last seven at the host venue. Schauffele could be the next American to etch his name on the Claret Jug in what would culminate in an excellent career-making year for him.
Xander Schauffele on links #Golf, The Open & more
https://t.co/nMYcCkjvGg
#LinksGolf #PGAOfficialWorldGolfRanking #PGARanking #PgaTour #RoyalTroon #Scotland #TheOpen #Troon #XANDERSCHAUFFELE pic.twitter.com/jqM7qsXTv7— FOGOLF (@FoGOLF) July 14, 2024
No. 2 – Scottie Scheffler
What in the world am I doing ranking Scottie Scheffler 2nd after he has posted one of the best seasons in professional golf history? Let me explain. Scheffler is built on predictability. When you are the best in the world, you want to control everything in your power. That’s pretty easy to do on a standard PGA Tour setup, but by nature, when you compete in The Open you will have to relinquish some control and just roll with the punches.
There is a secret spice of luck that is forever present at The Open. It could be a bad lie in the fescue, an impossible situation against the wall of a pot bunker, or simply a bad weather draw. As we saw at Pinehurst, the unpredictable variables seem to negatively affect Scheffler, proving to be his only possible kryptonite. If things go his way, he’ll probably win and I have resigned to that. But, strange things happen across the pond and it will be how he deals with a bad break that will likely make the difference in a T10 or a Win at the end of the day.
No. 1 – Rory McIlroy
The year was 2016. There was a Big-4 in professional golf that included Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, and Rory McIlroy. While some have piled onto McIlroy and questioned whether his career over the last eight years has been a success or failure, it’s pretty unbelievable when you look at that list of names that he’s still one of the best players in the world. The guy has not fallen off…not one bit.
He can win The Open. He has an intimate relationship with links-golf and his place in the sport. You can argue about the scar tissue from Pinehurst, but it may not even be a scar yet. We are talking about an open wound. The only medication that can fix what he lost on the final hole is to show up to the next Major and once again prove the doubters wrong. He’s mental strength is often underestimated and I think McIlroy shows up to Royal Troon with intentions on leaving the last eight years behind him by capturing his long awaiting 5th Major Championship Trophy. Troon belong to Rory! Mark it down.
Open eyes on Rory McIlroy as he looks to end decade-long wait for major win https://t.co/w9dTsy1Ym0 pic.twitter.com/chGuf26gOl
— Indy Sport (@IndySport) July 12, 2024
Enjoy The Open Championship and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
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